Morning in New York: positive momentum looking for a foothold

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

The main macro publication this Monday, February 9, will be the data on household inflation expectations from FRB New York for January. An upward or downward deviation from the December level (3.42%) could quickly change the market's assessment of the risks of stabilizing high price pressure. The indicator reflects the degree of consumer confidence in the Fed's ability to keep inflation under control.

Also in the focus of attention will be the speech of Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed's Board of Governors, on the topic of digital assets and the role of the dollar. This speech will not be directly related to the monetary policy, but the market reacts to any statements of the representatives of the Fed's leadership. Crypto-assets remain sensitive to regulatory signals, so short-term movements in this segment are not excluded.

Gold is consolidating around $5 thousand per ounce after the recent turbulence, which U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent attributed to speculation in the Chinese market. The Chinese Central Bank recorded net purchases of gold for the 15th consecutive month. Silver returned to around $80 per ounce amid active buying of drawdowns by retail investors. SLV fund attracted almost $500 mln for a few days before the reversal on Friday. Bitcoin rose back to $70 th. after falling to $60 th., but market participants note the remaining risks of increased volatility against the backdrop of reduced liquidity.

About 58% of companies in the S&P 500 index reported quarterly results on February 9. The forecast of profit growth, according to FactSet, was raised from 8.1% to 14%. Apollo Global Management (APO), Becton Dickinson (BDX), Cleveland Cliffs (CLF), monday.com (MNDY), Dynatrace (DT) and Pagaya Technologies (PGY ) will report before the main session on February 9. ON Semiconductor (ON), Amkor Technology (AMKR), Arch Capital Group (ACGL), UDR Inc. (UDR), Principal Financial Group (PFG) and Medpace Holdings (MEDP ) will release their results after the market close.

Futures on American stock indices demonstrate neutral dynamics. There is a neutral balance of risks with moderate volatility. We expect the S&P 500 to fluctuate in the range of 6900-6975 points, which roughly corresponds to a range of -0.5% to +0.6% to the closing level of the previous session.

-Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) reported a complete discontinuation of offering a tablet version of its weight-loss drugs amid increased regulatory pressure in the US and FDA scrutiny of the market for unapproved analogs. Against this backdrop, the issuer's shares collapsed by around 15% before the start of main trading, reflecting increased uncertainty around the direction of GLP-1 and the company's competitiveness in the category.

-Nexstar Media Group (NXST) and Tegna (TGNA) have received a boost following reports that US President Donald Trump has openly endorsed their merger. The parameters of the deal, which have been discussed publicly, include Nexstar's offer to acquire Tegna for $3.54 billion, with the main risk being restrictions on the share of audience one media group can reach - the current limit is 39% of households. Public support from the White House is perceived by the market as a factor that increases the likelihood that these regulations will be relaxed.

- Former Walmart top executive Greg Foran will become the new CEO of Kroger (KR). The change of the retailer's management is seen by the market as a move to strengthen operational efficiency and competitiveness.

- Digital Realty's (DLR) NRT14 data center in Japan has been certified to host high-density computing systems based on Nvidia hardware, including a new generation of artificial intelligence solutions. The company emphasizes that having such certified sites strengthens its position in the competition for customers deploying large-scale computing facilities.

Trades on February 6 on American stock exchanges ended with strong growth. S&P 500 added 1.97%, Nasdaq 100 rose by 2.15%, Dow Jones rose by 2.47%, Russell 2000 soared by 3.6%.

All sectors, except telecoms (XLC: -0.39%), closed in the plus. IT companies (XLK: +4.06%) and industrial sectors (XLI: +2.86%) were the leaders of growth.

Quotes of software developers tried to interrupt a seven-day decline amid objections to pessimistic forecasts suggesting increased competition from AI. Additional support for the broad AI segment was provided by continued high capital expenditures, which helped semiconductor companies to recover the losses of the week. The sector was further boosted by Nvidia (NVDA: +7.87%) CEO's statement that the scale of investments by major technology companies in AI infrastructure of about $600 bln looks justified and sustainable, which supported the stock's growth during the session.

The consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan for February rose to 57.3, continuing the upward trend of recent months. This provided additional support to the "bulls" in the U.S. market.

The growth of the indicator reflects the improvement of households' assessment of current financial conditions and a more stable perception of the economic situation. At the same time, annual inflation expectations declined to an annual minimum of 3.5% from 4% in January.

-Bill Holdings (BILL: +37.2% at the close of trading on February 6) exceeded estimates for quarterly revenue, earnings and payment volume. The company's management improved its guidance for the current quarter and the whole year, noting strong growth in core transaction services.

- Strategy (MSTR: +26.1%) was supported by a rebound in bitcoin futures, which compensated for the weak reporting. The company recorded a decline in profits, but revenue in the software segment slightly exceeded forecasts. The volume of own crypto-assets increased to 672.5 thousand BTC.

- Roivant Sciences (ROIV: +22.3%) was positively impacted by the release of the BEACON study, which recorded an early clinical effect and 100% positive responses for a number of indicators, as well as good tolerability.

-Under Armour (UAA: +20.4%) reported better-than-expected results for the third quarter. Operating profit significantly exceeded forecasts and the full-year guidance was raised.

- Despite moderately weak reporting, chip maker Microchip (MCHP: -2.6%) reported signs of stabilizing demand, reinforcing expectations that the sector will gradually emerge from its cyclical drawdown.

-IREN (IREN: +5.1%) was supported after news of a 1.6 GW power capacity expansion and a move to the final phase of equipping GPU data centers. The company said it has covered 95% of capital expenditures for the projects launched. Management reaffirmed its revenue target of $3.4 billion for 2026.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor