Morning in New York: Statistics and Fed rhetoric will set the tone for trading

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

The focus of today's session will be on the release of retail sales data for December (consensus: +0.4% month-on-month, November: +0.6% mom) as a key benchmark for assessing the sustainability of consumer demand and the future trajectory of disinflation. Our baseline forecast assumes a 0.5% m/m rise in the overall indicator, with the non-auto indicator up 0.3% and the benchmark group up 0.4%. If the actual result is higher than expected, it will boost the investment community's confidence in the soft landing scenario for the economy. Shares of cyclical industries and small capitalization companies will be supported.

This Tuesday, February 10, the President of FRB Dallas and member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve System (FRB) Laurie Logan, from whom investors are waiting for an assessment of inflationary processes and their impact on economic growth, will make a speech. The optimistic mood of the speaker may become the basis for expectations of more active easing of monetary policy.

Before the main session opens , Spotify (SPOT), Coca-Cola (KO), S&P Global (SPGI), CVS Health (CVS), Datadog (DDOG), Fiserv (FISV) and Duke Energy (DUK ) will report quarterly results. Robinhood (HOOD), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Ford Motor (F), Cloudflare (NET), Astera Labs (ALAB), Welltower (WELL) and American International Group (AIG ) will report at the postmarket.

Futures on the US stock indices demonstrate about zero dynamics. The balance of risks for the upcoming trading session amid expectations of steady growth in retail sales is assessed as moderately positive with average volatility.

- Shares of Ichor Holdings (ICHR) are up more than 20% ahead of the main session after posting strong quarterly results. The company beat revenue and earnings expectations, recording a recovery in demand from semiconductor equipment manufacturers and improved operating performance.

- Onsemi (ON) is down about 4% on the premarket as investors were disappointed by the company's own earnings guidance, reflecting continued pressure from inventory normalization. The issuer's profit for the latest quarter came in slightly above expectations, while revenue fell short of consensus.

- Upwork (UPWK) shares are down more than 20% before the start of the main session, although the company's quarterly results beat forecasts. The negative reaction was caused by the company's own revenue and profit guidance for the current quarter, which was below consensus. This reinforced investors' doubts about the pace of recovery in demand for freelance services and the company's ability to effectively monetize new product initiatives.

- Shares of Credo Technology (CRDO) are up over 15% before the open of trading on the back of a significant increase in revenue guidance for the fiscal third quarter. The market interpreted this as a signal of stronger demand from cloud infrastructure operators and the artificial intelligence segment.

- Medpace (MEDP) is down about 4% in the premarket, although its revenue and earnings growth was better than expected. Investors were alarmed by the company's own forecasts and management's comments on demand and order book.

- Shares of Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT) are losing about 4% ahead of the main session after the release of mixed reports. The issuer's revenue came in slightly above forecasts, while profit and profitability fell short of average expectations. This reinforces concerns about the pace of profitability recovery amid competitive pressures and rising costs.

Trades on February 9 on American stock exchanges ended in plus. The S&P 500 added 0.47%, the Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.77%, the Dow Jones rose by a symbolic 0.04%, the Russell 2000 rose by 0.7%. One of the main positive drivers was the return of interest in AI-related companies on the back of news from the OpenAI ecosystem and recovery in the software segment. The technology sector (XLK: +1.57%) led the growth, supported by purchases of semiconductor and software stocks. The healthcare industry (XLV: -0.88%) was the outsider due to the sell-off of biopharma, medical equipment manufacturers and insurers.

Nvidia (NVDA: +2.5%) and Microsoft (MSFT: +3.11% ) were the most popular of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks. Alphabet (GOOGL: +0.45%) announced it is raising $15 billion in debt to expand its AI infrastructure.

January data from the FRB of New York indicated a decline in the public's inflation expectations at the year horizon to 3.1% (consensus: 3.4%) and an improvement in labor market perceptions (wage growth forecast increased to 2.7%).

A weaker dollar (DXY: -0.8%) sparked a rally in precious metals, with gold returning above $5000 and silver up 6.9%.

- Transocean agreed to buy Valaris (VAL: +34.3%) for $5.8 billion, which implies a premium to the previous closing price of 32%. Investors were positive about the fleet expansion plans and the potential for operational synergies in the offshore drilling segment. The transaction is expected to close in the second half of 2026.

- Novo Nordisk (NVO: +3.6%) filed a lawsuit against Hims & Hers, claiming patent infringement of GLP-1 drugs. The market sees this as strengthening barriers for unapproved analogs of these drugs and strengthening the competitive position of original manufacturers.

- STMicroelectronics (STM: +8.9%) announced the expansion of its strategic partnership with Amazon Web Services in cloud and semiconductor technologies. The partnership increases the company's exposure to AI infrastructure and data centers, which the market interprets as a long-term driver of product demand.

- Workday (WDAY: -5.1%) announced a management reshuffle. Its co-founder Anil Bhusri returned as CEO, while Carl Eschenbach left the company. Although forecasts were confirmed, investors saw the event as a source of management uncertainty amid slowing growth in corporate IT budgets.

- Micron Technology (MU: -2.8%) reacted negatively to news of a possible shift in first shipments of HBM4 for Nvidia gas pedals in favor of Samsung and SK Hynix, despite Micron's continued leadership in HBM3E, due to concerns about shrinking market share.

- monday.com (MNDY: -20.8%) reported revenue and earnings above consensus, but its bookings and deferred revenue were below estimates. The company's first-quarter and full-year guidance, which was more conservative than market-wide expectations, was an additional negative.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor