Morning in New York: trading will go without sharp movements

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Capital Markets Research, Freedom Broker.

The situation in the Middle East has once again come to the forefront for investors. The previous evening, US President Donald Trump announced the extension of the ceasefire until the completion of negotiations with Iran mediated by Pakistan. However, Tehran's position remains uncertain and its first reaction to Washington's initiatives looks skeptical. The market perceives the extension of the ceasefire as a temporary de-escalation, but the lack of an agreed position among the parties to the conflict limits optimism.

On the news of foreign policy quotes WTI fell below $90 per barrel after rising a day earlier. At the same time, Iran said it has no intention to open the Strait of Hormuz if the naval blockade remains in place, and the negotiation process remains in doubt due to Tehran's refusal to engage in new contacts. We still see the risk of the US Army launching a ground operation to gain control of the Strait if the dialog is never resumed. According to media reports, the Pentagon continues to accumulate military forces in the region.

No significant publications are scheduled in the macroeconomic calendar, which shifts the focus of investors' attention to the foreign policy backdrop and the corporate earnings growth cycle, especially in the AI segment.

Vertiv Holdings (VRT) reported quarterly results . GE Vernova (GEV), Boeing (BA), AT&T (T), Boston Scientific (BSX), Philip Morris (PM) and CME Group (CME ) will also report before the opening of the main session. Tesla (TSLA), Lam Research (LRCX), ServiceNow (NOW), International Business Machines (IBM), Texas Instruments (TXN), CSX Corporation (CSX) and Kinder Morgan (KMI ) will report quarterly results after the close of trading.

Futures on US stock indices show moderate growth. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming session as neutral with average volatility amid persisting geopolitical uncertainty. The AI agenda remains the key factor of market support, against this background Nasdaq 100 is trading near the highs, overtaking the broad market index.

- Strong quarterly reports caused Manhattan Associates (MANH) stock price growth by 9%. The company's adjusted EPS amounted to $1.24 against the forecast of $1.11, and revenue reached $282.2 mln with average expectations of $273.7 mln.

- An expanded partnership with Amazon Web Services supported GitLab (GTLB) quotes, adding about 5%. The company is integrating its AI platform with Amazon Bedrock, which allows customers to use their own AWS infrastructure and models without additional connections, strengthening GitLab's position in the DevSecOps and AI segments.

- The securities of Target Hospitality (TH) collapsed by 10% after the announcement of additional issue of 7 mln shares. Moreover, the underwriters have been granted the right to place another 1.05 mln securities, which increases the risk of dilution of shares of their current holders.

- Quotes of Sonoco Products (SON) are falling by 5.7%. Despite meeting its earnings guidance for the quarter, revenue was weaker than expected. At the same time, the management assumes that the adjusted EPS at the end of the year will be closer to the lower boundary of the gaidens of $5.8-6.2. The pressure on the issuer's capitalization is strengthened by its comments on the continuing uncertainty of demand and inflationary costs.

- Calix (CALX) shares are down 7% after releasing quarterly results. Although the company's earnings and revenue beat consensus, investors are wagering on selling pressure on margins and demand volatility.

April 21 trading on American stock exchanges was in the negative and ended near intraday lows. S&P 500 lost 0.63%, Nasdaq 100 decreased by 0.42%, Dow Jones fell by 0.59%, Russell 2000 fell by 1%.

The correction intensified due to the worsening geopolitical background. Most of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks were trading in the red zone, putting pressure on stock indices. Within the technology sector, semiconductor manufacturers and software developers showed relative stability.

The energy sector (XLE: +1.45%) was the leader of growth in the broad market on the back of higher WTI oil prices (+2.6%). The real estate industry (XLRE: -1.94%), which is sensitive to the dynamics of interest rates, was the outsider.

Macroeconomic statistics were strongly positive. Retail sales in Ma rose by 1.7% m/m against a consensus of 1.4%, while the benchmark index rose by 0.7% vs. 0.2% expected. ADP data pointed to an improvement in the employment situation: in the four weeks ending April 4, the number of new job openings totaled 54.75k.

The hearings on the candidacy of Kevin Warsh for the post of the head of the Fed were held without significant surprises and were mainly political in nature, with the candidate himself reaffirming his commitment to the independence of the regulator.

Due to uncertainty over the prospects for the resumption of talks between the US and Iran, the market is partially overestimating forecasts for an imminent de-escalation of the conflict, which has limited demand for risky assets.

-UnitedHealth Group (UNH: +7% at the close of trading on April 21) reported quarterly adjusted earnings per share of $7.23 and revenue of $111.72 billion with consensus of $6.57 billion and $109.57 billion, respectively. The adjusted earnings guidance for 2026 was upgraded. Management noted improved operating performance in the OptumHealth and OptumRx segments.

- GE Aerospace's (GE: -5.6%) adjusted EPS came in at $1.86 and revenue reached $11.61 billion, with average expectations of $1.6 billion and $10.71 billion, respectively. At the same time, management worsened guidance on the number of departures amid general industry uncertainty.

-Uber (UBER) announced that it owns an 11.5% stake in Lucid Group (LCID: +5.3%), becoming the second largest shareholder in the electric vehicle maker. The market sees this as a signal of deepening strategic partnership, especially in the context of the development of autonomous transportation.

-D.R. Horton (DHI: +5.8%) showed an improvement in gross margin and reaffirmed its outlook for fiscal 2026. The key positive driver was the improvement in orders.

- A joint clinical trial between Merck (MRK: -3.9%) and Eisai in Keytruda-based combination therapy did not confirm the expected efficacy.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor