Oil, luxury, technology. Which stocks won and which lost because of the war in Iran

A 50% rise in oil prices due to the shutdown of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has caused some energy companies to significantly increase their prices, while others have suffered losses. At the same time, the broader market has also been affected, affecting consumer sentiment, notes the Financial Times. The publication has compiled a global list of beneficiaries of the war in the Middle East and losers because of it.

Higher oil prices have supported a significant part of the energy sector: Saudi Aramco, PetroChina and TotalEnergies are among the companies that have increased their market value the most during the war, the Financial Times reports. A $1 increase in the price of a barrel brings Saudi Aramco an additional $1 billion in free cash flow, the publication calculated. During the war, the oil giant's market value increased by $144 billion despite missile and drone attacks on its fields and refineries, as well as the closure of its main export route.

Overall, companies with a smaller presence in the Middle East - such as Norway's Equinor, whose shares rose 24% - performed better in the market, the FT notes. Followed by players with large trading divisions that were able to take advantage of the volatility. Quotes of BP and TotalEnergies jumped by 14% and 16% respectively.

Companies whose oil and gas production in the Persian Gulf has been halted or damaged by missile strikes have fared the worst. ExxonMobil and Shell faced multi-billion dollar costs to repair damage in the industrial city of Ras Laffan in Qatar, the FT writes. Exxon's market value has fallen by 4% or $28 billion since the conflict began.

Many companies in the consumer sector have suffered a blow to their margins as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz raises costs and increases the financial burden on customers. Several major U.S. consumer goods manufacturers, including Procter & Gamble and Kimberly-Clark, have warned of price increases.

Luxury companies such as LVMH and Hermès have been hit by falling demand, while automakers have been hit by disruptions in logistics and supply chains, as well as higher prices for aluminum and other raw materials. Demand in the Middle East fell sharply at Nissan, Toyota and Stellantis, for example. A decline in sales revenue in Dubai was reported by Ferrari. Volvo Cars CEO Håkan Samuelsson emphasized that he was concerned about the deteriorating consumer sentiment in the US. "It's putting pressure on the whole economy and people are starting to think: maybe I'm going to lose my job ... so it's not the time to buy a car or buy anything at all," the FT quoted him as saying.

Airlines canceled more than 75,000 flights for this summer, while cutting more than 9.3 million passenger seats from their schedules. Low-cost carrier Spirit Airlines went bankrupt: the company cited, among other things, "recent significant increases in oil prices and other business pressures".

For mining companies, the war has been a double blow: high production costs due to rising diesel prices are combined with the prospect of weak commodity prices due to a possible slowdown in the global economy, the publication emphasizes. Producers that benefited most from last year's explosive gold price rally, such as Agnico Eagle and Zijin Mining, have suffered serious losses in the past two months.

Curiously, the value of most of the leading defense companies in the U.S. and Europe has also declined since the start of the war with Iran. On March 2, Lockheed Martin securities traded at their highest level since the beginning of the year, and since then have fallen in value by 33%. Analysts believe that the sell-off reflects investor uncertainty about the industry's ability to rapidly ramp up production on a large scale given existing supply chain bottlenecks, the FT points out.

The list of losers over the Iran crisis, according to the FT, was topped by:

- Indonesian energy and infrastructure group related to coal and power business PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk, its shares have lost 60% since the start of fighting in the Middle East;

- Vedanta is an Indian mining and metals company that mines zinc, aluminum, copper and oil (-59%);

- Indonesian renewable energy and geothermal projects company PT Barito Renewables Energy Tbk (-52%).

Technology companies have supported global stock markets amid turbulence as investors look for sectors least affected by the conflict in the Middle East, explains the FT. Strong gains in shares of chip makers such as Intel and TSMC, as well as a sharp recovery in Big Tech market valuations, supported by strong first-quarter profits, outweighed declines in other sectors.

Nearly two-thirds of large-cap issuers talked about AI at conference calls at the end of the first quarter - it was mentioned about twice as often as the conflict in the Middle East, according to AlphaSense data.

Investors were returning to the technology sector at a time of "extreme macroeconomic uncertainty", Pictet Asset Management chief strategist Luca Paolini told the FT. Market participants were once again attracted by the "predictability of profit-taking", he said. "After the ceasefire, it all came down to AI again," he stated.

The combined value of semiconductor companies with market valuations above $10 billion has risen 26%, or $3.7 trillion, since the war began, the newspaper calculated.

The first three lines of the list of beneficiaries of the Iranian crisis, according to the FT's calculations, were occupied by technology companies:

- Shares of Chinese GPU and AI gas pedal developer Moore Threads Technology have soared 1,763% since the war began;

- Securities of the American cloud provider DigitalOcean, focused on startups and small businesses, added 204%;

- the value of Chinese manufacturer of lasers and photonic components Suzhou Everbright Photonics rose 177%.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor