OPEC expects a "balanced" oil market in 2026 - contrary to Wall Street predictions
OPEC maintained its previous forecast for global oil supply and demand in 2026, expecting the market to be balanced. This goes against widespread forecasts of oversupply, Bloomberg notes.
To maintain a balance between production and consumption next year, OPEC+ countries will need to produce an average of 43 million barrels per day, according to the report of the exporters' organization. This is about the same amount as was produced last month, the agency writes. At the same time, the key members of the alliance, led by Saudi Arabia, have already recognized the fragility of the market situation: in early November, they agreed to suspend further increase in production in the first quarter of 2026.
In recent years, OPEC forecasts have often turned out to be overly optimistic, Bloomberg recalls. For example, last year the organization was forced to lower demand estimates six times in a row - by a total of 32%, and at the end of 2023 it predicted a record shortage of reserves, which never happened.
What the market is waiting for
One of the largest oil traders, Trafigura Group, warned this week of the risk of an "oversupply", while the International Energy Agency (IEA), despite lowering its own forecasts in a report published on Thursday, still expects a record surplus of 4 million bpd. However, it also admits that actions by oil producers could partially mitigate the scale of the imbalance.
A consensus forecast by Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, compiled by Bloomberg, suggests a surplus of about 2.2 million bpd next year. At the same time, Brent crude futures could fall to about $59, that estimate suggests. The Mark has already fallen in price by 17% in 2025.
What about the prices
Oil prices fell on Thursday, December 11, to their lowest levels since October. Futures for Mark Brent on the ICE exchange decreased by 2% and traded around $61 per barrel. WTI oil on the Nymex exchange fell in price by about 2.1% to $57.2 per barrel.
The market was pressured by weak corporate reports that outweighed the impact of growing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, Bloomberg explains.
This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor
