UBS Group AG

Piper Sandler Companies

Analysts resort to comparisons to animals and cartoon characters to describe the situation

"Running on air": the market and consumers ignore the US-Iran war. What are the risks?

Two-year treasuries saw the strongest rise in yields since 2022 due to oil and the Fed

Global commodity prices <a href="https://www.vsemirnyjbank.org/ru/news/press-release/2026/04/28/commodity-markets-outlook-april-2026-press-release">will rise</a> this year to their highest level since 2022, the World Bank says. The World Bank commodity <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets/price-forecasts">price index</a> is expected to rise about 16 percent this year, the Washington-based organization said Tuesday in its Commodity Markets Outlook <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/b2dbffe7-2f9f-41c3-a6cc-4ddfa3b37c1a/content">report.</a> That would be the first annual increase since the start of the Ukraine conflict, the bank said.

Commodity prices to reach four-year high in 2026 - World Bank

On May 1, the UAE will leave OPEC, the association of oil-exporting countries, after almost 60 years of cooperation. The Emirates joined the organization in 1967. Before the Iran war, the UAE was OPEC's third-largest producer, accounting for about 12% of the group's total output. The country will also leave OPEC+, an association that also includes a number of major oil producers including Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. Sergey Pigarev, senior analyst at Freedom Finance Global, wrote for Oninvest about what this decision means for the oil market.

The UAE will leave OPEC and OPEC+ as of Ma 1. Who will be the winners and who will be the losers

Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts for this year due to production cuts in the Middle East, Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/analysts-reassess-oil-price-estimates-iran-conflict-disrupts-markets-2026-04-27/">writes</a>. In the most negative scenario, the bank's analysts admit that in the fourth quarter it will average $120 per barrel, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/448b06dd-6f8e-455a-add8-3d64e9d96d8b">reports the</a> Financial Times. Supplies through the Strait of Hormuz will only recover by the end of June, Goldman predicted. It previously expected full exports to return in mid-Ma.

Goldman admits oil at $120: he expects supply to recover no sooner than the end of June

The market is in vain ignoring the alarming signal that oil is sending, says former Fidelity portfolio manager George Noble. In his opinion, the war with Iran has exposed a dangerous gap between the physical and "paper" market.

'Revaluation is going to be tough': Wall Street veteran warns of oil market error

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.

Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation

Hecla Mining Company

Since the start of the year, the Russell 2000 index, the benchmark for small- and mid-cap stocks, has risen nearly 11.5% – despite a selloff in March, when it lost more than 10% from its January peak. Such volatility has been driven in part by the scale of the conflict in the Middle East and its impact on commodity flows. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz became the trigger that <a href="https://www.thetimes.com/business/economics/article/strait-of-hormuz-closure-threatens-brent-crude-100-surge-w3sxph3pl#:~:text=The%2520Middle%2520East%2520conflict%2520pushed%2520Brent%2520crude%2520to%2520%2524119.50%2520a%2520barrel%2520for%2520the%2520first%2520time%2520since%25202022%2520but%2520prices%2520fell%2520back%2520on%2520reports%2520that%2520the%2520G7%2520will%2520intervene">pushed</a>&nbsp;Brent crude toward $120 per barrel, while small caps are particularly sensitive to fuel costs and consumer sentiment.

Stabilization or escalation: Two scenarios, four names to play the U.S.-Iran conflict

Citigroup Inc.

Citi analysts have presented possible scenarios of oil market development until the end of the year, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/21/citi-oil-prices-stocks-strait-hormuz-supply-shock.html">reports</a> CNBC. They assume that prices may vary from $95 to $130 per barrel - depending on the situation with supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains blocked due to the conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Market recovery directly depends on the timing of the opening of this corridor, the bank points out.

Oil prices could hit $130 with prolonged blockade of Strait of Hormuz - Citigroup

Shell plc

Naturgy Energy Group, S.A.

E.ON SE

Enel SpA

TotalEnergies SE

Exxon Mobil Corporation

EDP, S.A.

Engie SA

RWE Aktiengesellschaft

Iberdrola, S.A.

Ministers of key EU countries - Germany, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Austria - <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/five-eu-finance-ministers-call-windfall-profit-tax-energy-companies-2026-04-04/">have called for</a> the introduction of a pan-European tax on excess profits of energy companies. By design, a windfall tax could ease the burden on consumers. For investors, this means the risk of pressure on dividends, share buyback programs and free cash flow in the sector.

Tax on excess profits for oil producers: what is the risk of the EU initiative for investors? 

CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY

BYD Company Limited

The shock caused by the cessation of oil and gas supplies from the Persian Gulf countries can lead to radical changes in the global energy market. This is exactly what has happened after previous crises. Electrification and green transition will accelerate, and investors can capitalize on the companies associated with these trends.

New momentum: How the energy crisis is accelerating the transition to green energy

Physical North Sea crude oil prices rose to a record high on the back of Iran's continued control of the Strait of Hormuz, adding to market anxiety, <a href="http://ft.com/content/f04ad855-81e3-49c5-827e-d3c4acb901c9">says the</a> Financial Times (FT).

North Sea Forties Blend oil prices hit a high due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz

Physical North Sea crude oil prices have risen sharply, suggesting a continued supply shortage in the market, Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-08/key-oil-prices-soar-showing-supply-is-tight-despite-iran-war-ceasefire?embedded-checkout=true">notes</a>. Despite a U.S.-Iran truce to restore traffic in the key Strait of Hormuz for global trade and already causing the value of oil futures to collapse, real oil supplies remain expensive and are selling at a large premium to core prices, the agency said.