The market is expecting an influx of $150 billion from tax refunds. Which stocks will benefit?

By the end of March, the U.S. stock market may receive up to $150 billion thanks to tax refunds for 2025, Wells Fargo has calculated. The expected injection of liquidity, according to the bank, will support bitcoin and a number of stocks popular among retail investors.

Wells Fargo analysts estimate that as much as $150 billion could flow into the markets by the end of March, when more than 60% of tax refunds are issued, CNBC writes. Early filing data shows that refund amounts this year are about 11% higher than last year, Barron's notes.

"Additional savings from tax refunds, especially among high-income consumers, will return to the stock market in our view," CNBC quoted Wells Fargo analyst Oh Sung-kwon Oh as saying in a note. - With larger savings comes increased speculative activity ... we expect aggressive buying by retail investors to return."

Bitcoin, analysts note, can become a kind of liquidity indicator: it can show changes in investment behavior. According to Wells Fargo, domestic liquidity has decreased by $105 billion over the past four weeks, while bitcoin has declined by about 29% over the same time.

Wells Fargo has highlighted more than two dozen stocks from a variety of sectors, including utilities, financials and industrials, that the bank believes are poised to outperform the market during tax season. The list was compiled based on the securities most popular with retail investors over the past year, based on the volume of buy orders, according to Wells Fargo Securities.

Robinhood 's trading platform could get a boost on the back of a surge in retail investment driven by tax refunds, according to the bank. Robinhood shares have lost 28% of their value over the past month, falling in tandem with the collapse in digital asset prices. On Feb. 10, the company reported fourth-quarter cryptocurrency revenue of $221 million, down 38% from a year ago, CNBC notes. At the same time, Robinhood's operating expenses in the fourth quarter of 2025 rose nearly 40% year-over-year amid the company's attempts to transform itself into a "financial super app," the channel writes.

Shares of aerospace corporation Boeing could also benefit from taxpayer purchases, Wells Fargo says. Boeing securities have added 29% over the past year and 10.5% since the start of 2026. The company has been recording robust demand for airplanes despite the fallout from a series of incidents involving its aircraft in 2024 and a number of whistleblower allegations, CNBC recalls. Earlier this month, the company said it delivered 46 airplanes in January, the third-highest total for the month in Boeing's history, the network noted.

Investors will not go into stocks that could suffer from the disruptive effects of AI, but will allocate capital to defensive assets, Barron's suggests. Some retailers could benefit from a combination of tax refunds and seasonal demand, the publication notes. Sporting goods retailers like Academy Sports & Outdoors, shoe companies like Crocs, and more fashion-oriented brands including Gap and American Eagle Outfitters could get a boost, Barron's writes. Off-price format discounters such as Burlington Stores have historically outperformed during tax season thanks to expenses related to returns.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor