The average target price of ACHR is 12 and suggests 13% upside potential. Usually, this means a HOLD recommendation among investment firms. This neutral recommendation suggests no significant price movement, up or down, in the next 12 months. The most optimistic analyst has a target price of 18.0. This translates into 67% upside potential in the best case. On the other hand, the most pessimistic analyst has a target price of 4.5. This is equivalent to 58% downside potential in the worst case. 

Archer Aviation Inc., an urban air mobility company, engages in designs, develops, manufactures, and operates electric vertical takeoff and landing aircrafts to carry passengers. The company was formerly known as Atlas Crest Investment Corp. and changed its name to Archer Aviation Inc. Archer Aviation Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.

Archer Aviation Inc.

Industrials

The company does not pay dividends at all, or it pays them sporadically. There have only been a few years with dividend payments in the past ten years. 

ACHR reported revenue of USD 0mn in the last 12 months, down 0% from FY24. The dynamics of cash flow, as measure by free cash flow (FCF), were rather similar. EPS fell 15% from FY24 to USD -1.07. Market expects EPS to reach USD -1.24 in FY25.

The stock's performance has been mixed in the past six months, with growth following a decline. There is no clear price trend compared to its global peers from the same sector and industry (as shown above). It has underperformed this peer group by 16ppts over six months and grown 19ppts slower in the past month. This is largely true for peers from the same country and sector. With respect to the stock's valuation against its peers, its overall price performance is 'fair'.

Another important profitability metric, return on assets (RoA), amounted to -58.1% in the last 12 months, an increase from -81.2% in FY23. The market analysts predict that RoA will be -76.7% in FY24, again weaker than its peers. 

In the last 12 months, the return on capital employed (RoCE) grew to -64.7%, below the peers. The consensus estimate for FY24 for RoCE is -94.2%, again behind the peers. 

Archer Aviation Inc. reported a return on equity (RoE) of -74.5% in the last 12 months, up from -106.4% in FY23. The market consensus projects an RoE of -115.8% in FY24, again behind its peers. 

The ratio of return on invested capital (RoIC) to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) has been -4.0 in the past several years. This ratio implies a fragile shareholder value creation. 

The institutional, legal, and compliance risks associated with the company's country are minimal. In combination with stringent business standards, shareholder rights are very highly protected.

ACHR has above average trading liquidity. The average private investor can sell his common position in the stock immediately. Liquidity is usually stable and is somewhat unfavourable on the days with the lowest activity. The trading volume mostly stays the same even under highly turbulent market conditions. 

No other major risks have been identified.

The risk of default is very high. Among the negative credit factors, we point to slow historical revenue growth, bleak profitability, negligible return on capital, poor working capital management, inadequate interest coverage, and poor cash flow generation.

In highly turbulent market conditions, ACHR is exceptionally volatile. In other words, the stock will be among the worst-performers in times of extreme market volatility or shocking company news. Standalone, the worst-day losses (less than 1% of the time) will likely be critical. 

In normal market circumstances, ACHR is exceptionally volatile. Put differently, without outstanding market volatility or shocking company news, the stock's price will change quite unpredictably. The stock's losses on its worst days (less than 1-5% of the time) will range from critical to immense. 

Considering past and projected metrics, the stock is distinctly 'expensive' compared to its peers. 

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Archer Aviation Inc.

$ 10.8

2

Archer Aviation Inc.

$ 10.8

2

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

About

About

Risk factor

Profitability factor

$ 10.8

About

About

Archer Aviation Inc.

$ 10.8

2

Archer Aviation Inc.

$ 10.8

2

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

About

About

Risk factor

Profitability factor

$ 10.8

About

About

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