Morning in New York: Stock Indices Near All-Time Highs

A daily review and forecast of events in the U.S. stock market by Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

The situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continues to create significant uncertainty for stock market participants. The prospects for a swift resolution of the dispute between the U.S. and Iran have worsened after Donald Trump made a counterdemand to Tehran for compensation for material damage. For its part, Iran has listed the lifting of sanctions, payment of compensation, and an end to military threats as conditions for reopening the strait. Against this backdrop, shipping traffic remains extremely low: only six vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, compared to an average of 11 over the previous ten days. The continued restrictions on one of the key energy supply routes are supporting oil prices and may limit investors’ appetite for risk.

This Tuesday will see the release of July data on the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (consensus: 97.5 points, June: 97.4) and existing-home sales (consensus: 4.05 million, June: 4.09 million) will be released this Tuesday. The expected stability in small business sentiment points to continued steady business activity. A decline in home sales could confirm that high interest rates are continuing to weigh on demand.

Before the start of the main trading session, Cardinal Health (CAH), Sea Limited (SE), Venture Global (VG), On Holding (ONON), Aramark (ARMK), Middleby (MIDD), and Rackspace Technology (RXT) will report their quarterly results. After the market closes, Lumentum (LITE), CoreWeave (CRWV), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), CAVA Group (CAVA), Franco-Nevada (FNV), Quantinuum (QNT), and H&R Block (HRB) will report their results.

Futures on U.S. stock indices are trading near flat. We assess the risk balance for the upcoming session as neutral, with moderate volatility. Uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on oil prices remains a limiting factor. Provided there is no further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the S&P 500 could consolidate near its all-time highs.

— Nvidia (NVDA) has reached an agreement with Apollo (APO), BlackRock (BLK), Blackstone (BX), Brookfield (BN), Goldman Sachs (GS), and KKR (KKR) to create platforms to raise more than $500 billion, which will be used to finance AI infrastructure. Nvidia is prepared to provide guarantees totaling up to $125 billion, which should expand customers’ access to computing power based on its solutions.

— Riot Platforms (RIOT) shares soared by approximately 23% on news of the signing of a 20-year agreement to lease 191 MW of data center capacity, which is expected to generate more than $9 billion in revenue for the company over the base term. Taking into account options to extend the agreement, this figure could exceed $16 billion. The contract expands the issuer’s prospects for diversifying its business beyond Bitcoin mining.

— Upwork (UPWK) shares are down about 19% following the release of weak second-quarter operating results. The company’s revenue fell 2% year-over-year to $191.7 million, the volume of services provided on its platform declined by 4%, and the number of active clients decreased from 796,000 a year earlier to 763,000. At the same time, the volume of services related to artificial intelligence increased by more than 22% year-over-year.

— Life360 (LIF) shares are down 21% amid ongoing pressure on profitability. Despite a 38% year-over-year increase in revenue to $159 million and a 53% rise in adjusted EBITDA to $31.1 million, net income fell from last year’s $7 million to $5.1 million. The company’s market capitalization came under additional pressure as it maintained its 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast in the range of $130 million to $140 million.

— A larger-than-expected quarterly loss caused Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) shares to drop by nearly 7%. The company reported a loss per share of $0.37, compared to a consensus estimate of $0.01, due to rising costs associated with the transition to branded weight-loss drugs. Management raised its 2026 revenue forecast from $2.8–3 billion to $3.1–3.3 billion but warned that gross margin would remain below average levels.

— Rocket Lab (RKLB) shares fell 8% as the delivery of its Neutron rocket to the launch site was postponed to the fourth quarter, reducing the likelihood of a launch before the end of the year. The company increased revenue by 62% year-over-year to a record $234 million, but forecasts a gross margin for the third quarter in the range of 29–31%, compared to a consensus estimate of 37.6%.

Trading on August 10 on U.S. stock exchanges ended with losses. The S&P 500 lost a symbolic 0.06%, the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.34%, the Dow Jones dropped 0.11%, and the Russell 2000 declined 0.56%. Pressure on stock prices came from rising oil prices and investors’ tendency to adopt a more cautious stance following the previous week’s strong rally, which saw the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high.

The energy sector led the gains (XLE: +4.68%), while the real estate sector was the underperformer (XLRE: −1.29%). Among the “Magnificent Seven,” performance was mostly positive; only Nvidia (NVDA: −2.86%) and Apple (AAPL: −1.5%) ended the day in the red.

WTI crude oil rose 5.1% amid escalating tensions surrounding Iran. Prices were supported by Tehran’s statement that its agreement with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz does not entail its full reopening. Another contributing factor was Donald Trump’s aforementioned demand that Iran pay compensation for damage caused during the war.

No significant macroeconomic data was released on Monday. However, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September was revised upward from Friday’s 44% to approximately 52%. A strong signal came from Beth Hammack, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, who stated that further delay in tightening monetary policy could make it difficult for inflation to return to the target level.

— Intel (INTC: −4.1%) raised $20 billion through a common stock offering—one-third more than its initial target. The proceeds are expected to be used to finance the company’s operations and expand its production capacity.

— MarineMax (HZO: +46.1%) has agreed to be acquired by Safe Harbor, a company owned by Blackstone Infrastructure, for $53 per share in cash. The deal values the company at approximately $1.5 billion on a debt-inclusive basis and represents a premium of about 49% over the closing price on August 7.

— AbCellera Biologics’ ABCL635 (ABCL: +34.8%) met its primary endpoints in a Phase 2 trial, demonstrating a statistically significant reduction in the frequency and severity of menopausal hot flashes following a single dose compared to placebo.

— Archer Aviation (ACHR: +12%) has agreed to acquire the Wisk Aero, SkyGrid, and Insitu divisions from Boeing (BA). The companies will also enter into a cooperation and technology-sharing agreement, under which Boeing will retain access to Wisk’s technologies.

— monday.com’s (MNDY: −4.8%) revenue and profit for the most recent reporting quarter exceeded consensus estimates, while its revenue forecast for the next three months fell short of the market’s average guidance. The revenue retention rate fell from 110% in the previous quarter to 109%, while the company left its revenue guidance for 2026 unchanged.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor