The average target price of COIN is 253 and suggests 1% downside potential. Usually, this means a SELL recommendation among investment firms, or a recommendation to decrease one's position in this instrument in the next 12 months. The most optimistic analyst has a target price of 400.0. This translates into 57% upside potential in the best case. On the other hand, the most pessimistic analyst has a target price of 170.0. This is equivalent to 33% downside potential in the worst case. 

Coinbase Global, Inc. provides financial infrastructure and technology for the cryptoeconomy in the United States and internationally. It offers the primary financial account in the cryptoeconomy for consumers; a marketplace with a pool of liquidity for transacting in crypto assets for institutions; and technology and services that enable developers to build crypto-based applications and securely accept crypto assets as payment. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in Wilmington, Delaware.

Coinbase Global, Inc.

Financial Services

The company does not pay dividends at all, or it pays them sporadically. There have only been a few years with dividend payments in the past ten years. 

COIN reported revenue of USD 6 814mn in the last 12 months, up 9% from FY24. The dynamics of cash flow, as measure by free cash flow (FCF), were rather similar. EPS fell 44% from FY24 to USD 5.84. Market expects EPS to reach USD 7.01 in FY25.

Over the last six months, the stock performance has varied, with an increase following a drop. The stock's price trend wasn't definitive when matched against its global counterparts from the same sector and industry (as depicted above). Within the past six months, its performance has trailed this peer group's by 12ppts and its growth accelerated by 24ppts in the past month. This is equally valid for peers from the same country and industry. Given the stock's valuation versus its peers, its total price movement is mildly favourable.

The company has reported very poor EBITDA margins compared to its global peers in recent years. EBITDA margin amounted to 26.5% in the last 12 months, up from -4.7% in FY23. 

Historically, COIN has reported very poor net margins compared to its global peers. Specifically, in the last 12 months, this metric equalled 21.5%, a growth from 3.1% in FY23. 

Coinbase Global, Inc. reported a return on equity (RoE) of 17.5% in the last 12 months, up from 1.6% in FY23. The market consensus projects an RoE of -13.7% in FY24, however, this time below its peers. 

Another important profitability metric, return on assets (RoA), amounted to 1.3% in the last 12 months, an increase from 0.1% in FY23. The market analysts predict that RoA will be -0.4% in FY24, again weaker than its peers. 

In the last 12 months, the return on capital employed (RoCE) grew to 12.2%, above the peers. The consensus estimate for FY24 for RoCE is 30.4%, again ahead of the peers. 

The ratio of return on invested capital (RoIC) to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) has been 0.2 in the past several years. This ratio implies a weak shareholder value creation. 

The institutional, legal, and compliance risks associated with the company's country are minimal. In combination with stringent business standards, shareholder rights are very highly protected.

COIN boasts very high trading liquidity. The average private investor can sell his common position in the stock immediately. Liquidity is usually quite stable and remains extremely favourable on the days with the lowest activity. The trading volume mostly stays the same even under highly turbulent market conditions. 

No other major risks have been identified.

The risk of default is moderate. We note resilient historical revenue growth, solid return on capital, low margin volatility, adequate interest coverage, solid cash flow generation, and an favourable capital structure, among the positive credit factors. Among the negative credit factors and we point to bleak profitability, weak debt servicing capacity.

In highly turbulent market conditions, COIN is exceptionally volatile. In other words, the stock will be among the worst-performers in times of extreme market volatility or shocking company news. Standalone, the worst-day losses (less than 1% of the time) will likely be critical. 

In normal market circumstances, COIN is exceptionally volatile. Put differently, without outstanding market volatility or shocking company news, the stock's price will change quite unpredictably. The stock's losses on its worst days (less than 1-5% of the time) will range from critical to immense. 

Considering past and projected metrics, the stock is distinctly 'expensive' compared to its peers. In particular, the stock is overpriced on P/E, 'expensive' on EV/EBITDA, overvalued on P/FCF. 

Coinbase Global, Inc.

$ 266.4

2

Coinbase Global, Inc.

$ 266.4

2

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

About

About

Risk factor

Profitability factor

$ 266.4

About

About

Coinbase Global, Inc.

$ 266.4

2

Coinbase Global, Inc.

$ 266.4

2

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

About

About

Risk factor

Profitability factor

$ 266.4

About

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