The average target price of EPR is 58 and suggests 1% downside potential. Usually, this means a SELL recommendation among investment firms, or a recommendation to decrease one's position in this instrument in the next 12 months. The most optimistic analyst has a target price of 60.0. This translates into 2% upside potential in the best case. On the other hand, the most pessimistic analyst has a target price of 51.0. This is equivalent to 14% downside potential in the worst case. 

EPR Properties is a leading experiential net lease real estate investment trust (REIT), specializing in select enduring experiential properties in the real estate industry. We focus on real estate venues which create value by facilitating out of home leisure and recreation experiences where consumers choose to spend their discretionary time and money. We have nearly $6.7 billion in total investments across 44 states. We adhere to rigorous underwriting and investing criteria centered on key industry, property and tenant level cash flow standards. We believe our focused approach provides a competitive advantage and the potential for stable and attractive returns.

EPR Properties

Real Estate

The company pays dividends most of the time. It has paid dividends in almost every one of the past ten years. Dividend per share (DPS) has grown yearly, but the dynamics are unclear. In the past 12 months, the dividend yield has been outstanding and can be rated excellent compared to its peers. At the same time, the average five-year yield has been significantly higher and exceeded most of its peers. The company distributes nearly all its profit as dividends (payout ratio above 90%, a negative factor). It will not be easy to sustain such an extreme payout ratio. It may also indicate a company's lack of profitable growth opportunities, which suggests doubtful prospects. On average, the company pays dividends 9 times a year, which may appeal to investors valuing a regular income stream. 

EPR reported revenue of USD 649mn in the last 12 months, up 1% from FY24. The dynamics of cash flow, as measure by free cash flow (FCF), were rather similar. EPS grew 2% from FY24 to USD 1.66. Market expects EPS to reach USD 2.45 in FY25.

The stock's performance has been mixed in the past six months, with growth following a decline. There is no clear price trend compared to its global peers from the same sector and industry (as shown above). The stock has outperformed this peer group by 29ppts over past six months and grown 3ppts faster in the past month. This is largely true for peers from the same country and sector. With respect to the stock's valuation against its peers, its overall price performance is 'fair'.

The company has reported very strong EBITDA margins compared to its global peers in recent years. EBITDA margin amounted to 68.2% in the last 12 months, a decline from 69.3% in FY23. 

Historically, EPR has reported very strong net margins compared to its global peers. Specifically, in the last 12 months, this metric equalled 23.0%, down from 25.1% in FY23. 

In the last 12 months, the return on capital employed (RoCE) declined to 2.8%, below the peers. The consensus estimate for FY24 for RoCE is 7.8%, however, this time ahead of the peers. 

EPR Properties reported a return on equity (RoE) of 6.2% in the last 12 months, down from 6.9% in FY23. The market consensus projects an RoE of 9.4% in FY24, this time above its peers. 

Another important profitability metric, return on assets (RoA), amounted to 2.7% in the last 12 months, a decrease from 3.0% in FY23. The market analysts predict that RoA will be 4.2% in FY24, more robust than its peers in this period. 

The ratio of return on invested capital (RoIC) to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) has been 0.4 in the past several years. This ratio implies a weak shareholder value creation. 

The institutional, legal, and compliance risks associated with the company's country are minimal. In combination with stringent business standards, shareholder rights are very highly protected.

EPR boasts very high trading liquidity. The average private investor can sell his common position in the stock immediately. Liquidity is usually very stable and remains favourable on the days with the lowest activity. The trading volume mostly stays the same even under highly turbulent market conditions. 

No other major risks have been identified.

The risk of default is high. Among the negative credit factors, we point to slow historical revenue growth, negligible return on capital, excessive margin volatility, poor working capital management, weak debt servicing capacity, and an unfavourable capital structure. We note robust profitability, among the positive credit factors. 

In highly turbulent market conditions, EPR is moderately volatile. In other words, the stock will fall more than the index in times of extreme market volatility or shocking company news. Standalone, the worst-day losses (less than 1% of the time) will likely be moderate. 

In normal market circumstances, EPR is as volatile as an index. Put differently, without outstanding market volatility or shocking company news, the stock's price will move with the index. The stock's losses on its worst days (less than 1-5% of the time) will range from low to mild. 

Considering past and projected metrics, the stock is moderately 'expensive' compared to its peers. In particular, the stock is reasonably priced on P/E, of fair value on EV/EBITDA, trading at neutral levels on P/FCF. 

EPR Properties

$ 58.58

5

EPR Properties

$ 58.58

5

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

About

About

Risk factor

Profitability factor

$ 58.58

About

About

EPR Properties

$ 58.58

5

EPR Properties

$ 58.58

5

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

About

About

Risk factor

Profitability factor

$ 58.58

About

About

Related news