The average target price of GRVO.PA is 22 and suggests 27% upside potential. Usually, this means a BUY recommendation among investment firms, or a recommendation to increase one's position in this instrument in the next 12 months. The most optimistic analyst has a target price of 22.4. This translates into 27% upside potential in the best case. On the other hand, the most pessimistic analyst has a target price of 22.4. This suggests 27% upside potential. Even the most pessimistic analyst believes there will be stock growth. 

Graines Voltz S.A. engages in the distribution of seeds, vegetable plants, and flower bulbs to professionals, horticulturists, market gardeners, and communities in France, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It also produces seeds and young horticultural plants. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Colmar, France.

France

Graines Voltz S.A.

Basic Materials

The company pays dividends irregularly. There have only been a few years with dividend payments in the past ten years. Dividend per share (DPS) has grown yearly, but the dynamics are unclear. In the past 12 months, the dividend yield has barely been above zero and was substantially below that of its peers. 

GRVO.PA reported revenue of EUR 134mn in the last 12 months, up 1% from FY23. At the same time, the dynamics of cash flow, as measured by free cash flow (FCF), were drastically different. Market expects EPS to reach EUR 0.52 in FY24.

The stock's performance has been mixed in the past six months, with growth following a decline. There is no clear price trend compared to its global peers from the same sector and industry (as shown above). It has underperformed this peer group by 12ppts over six months and grown 9ppts slower in the past month. At the same time, the stock's performance relative to its the peers from the same country and sector is different. It underperformed these peers by 18ppts over six months and grew 8ppts slower in the past month. With respect to the stock's valuation against its peers, its overall price performance is neutral.

The company has reported weak EBITDA margins compared to its global peers in recent years. EBITDA margin amounted to -0.2% in the last 12 months, a decline from 0.8% in FY23. 

Historically, GRVO.PA has reported very poor net margins compared to its global peers. Specifically, in the last 12 months, this metric equalled -4.3%, down from 0.5% in FY22. 

Graines Voltz S.A. reported a return on equity (RoE) of -8.4% in the last 12 months, down from -8.1% in FY23. The market consensus projects an RoE of -5.5% in FY24, again behind its peers. 

In the last 12 months, the return on capital employed (RoCE) declined to -6.2%, below the peers. The consensus estimate for FY24 for RoCE is -2.0%, again behind the peers. 

Another important profitability metric, return on assets (RoA), amounted to -3.9% in the last 12 months, a decrease from -3.8% in FY23. The market analysts predict that RoA will be -2.6% in FY24, again weaker than its peers. 

The ratio of return on invested capital (RoIC) to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) has been -0.4 in the past several years. This ratio implies a fragile shareholder value creation. 

The institutional, legal, and compliance risks associated with the company's country are minimal. In combination with stringent business standards, shareholder rights are very highly protected.

GRVO.PA has very poor trading liquidity. It will take considerable time for the average private investor to sell a common position under normal market conditions. Liquidity is relatively stable and becomes extremely unfavourable on the days with the lowest activity. The trading volume mostly stays the same even under highly turbulent market conditions. Another factor to consider is the substantial number of days with zero trading volumes, i.e., without any ability to sell a position. The stock has a tiny market capitalisation, which usually makes its trading liquidity erratic and unpredictable. 

No other major risks have been identified.

The risk of default is high. Among the negative credit factors, we point to weak positions in its industry, slow historical revenue growth, bleak profitability, negligible return on capital, and inadequate interest coverage. We note low margin volatility, among the positive credit factors. 

In highly turbulent market conditions, GRVO.PA is moderately volatile. In other words, the stock will fall more than the index in times of extreme market volatility or shocking company news. Standalone, the worst-day losses (less than 1% of the time) will likely be moderate. 

In normal market circumstances, GRVO.PA is volatile. Put differently, without outstanding market volatility or shocking company news, the stock's price will move much wider than the index. The stock's losses on its worst days (less than 1-5% of the time) will range from moderate to average. We would also like to highlight the average intraday volatility of the instrument. 

From both historical and forecast perspectives, the stock is considerably underpriced compared to similar stocks. In particular, the stock is reasonably priced on P/E, of fair value on EV/EBITDA, undervalued on P/FCF. 

Graines Voltz S.A.

€ 17.6

3

Graines Voltz S.A.

€ 17.6

3

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

Risk factor

Profitability factor

€ 17.6

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