The average target price of INA.SW is 21 and suggests 4% downside potential. Usually, this means a SELL recommendation among investment firms, or a recommendation to decrease one's position in this instrument in the next 12 months. The most optimistic analyst has a target price of 21.0. This is lower than the current market price, meaning that even the most optimistic analyst does not see upside potential. On the other hand, the most pessimistic analyst has a target price of 21.0. This is equivalent to 4% downside potential in the worst case. 

Ina Invest Holding AG operates as a real estate company in Switzerland. The company engages in developing and building real estate and construction projects; planning and completion of new buildings and conversions of real estate; and holding, managing, renting, and brokering real estate properties. It develops residential and commercial properties. The company is based in Zurich, Switzerland.

Switzerland

Ina Invest Holding AG

Real Estate

The company pays dividends on rare occasions. There have only been a few years with dividend payments in the past ten years. Dividend per share (DPS) has grown yearly, but the dynamics are unclear. In the past 12 months, the dividend yield has barely been above zero and was substantially below that of its peers. 

INA.SW reported revenue of CHF 17mn in the last 12 months, up 9% from FY23. At the same time, the dynamics of cash flow, as measured by free cash flow (FCF), were drastically different. EPS grew 96% from FY23 to CHF -1.10. Market expects EPS to reach CHF -1.34 in FY25.

Over the last six months, the stock performance has varied, with an increase following a drop. The stock's price trend wasn't definitive when matched against its global counterparts from the same sector and industry (as depicted above). Over the past six months the stock has exceeded the performance of this peer group by 19ppts and its growth accelerated by 1ppts in the past month. This is equally valid for peers from the same country and industry. Given the stock's valuation versus its peers, its total price movement is neither favourable nor unfavourable.

The company has reported very poor EBITDA margins compared to its global peers in recent years. EBITDA margin amounted to 10.0% in the last 12 months, up from -88.0% in FY23. 

Historically, INA.SW has reported very poor net margins compared to its global peers. Specifically, in the last 12 months, this metric equalled -20.7%, a growth from -90.8% in FY23. 

In the last 12 months, the return on capital employed (RoCE) grew to -0.9%, below the peers. The consensus estimate for FY24 for RoCE is -10.3%, again behind the peers. 

Ina Invest Holding AG reported a return on equity (RoE) of -1.5% in the last 12 months, up from -6.7% in FY23. The market consensus projects an RoE of -24.8% in FY24, again behind its peers. 

Another important profitability metric, return on assets (RoA), amounted to -0.5% in the last 12 months, an increase from -1.8% in FY23. The market analysts predict that RoA will be -6.5% in FY24, again weaker than its peers. 

The ratio of return on invested capital (RoIC) to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) has been -0.4 in the past several years. This ratio implies a fragile shareholder value creation. 

The institutional, legal, and compliance risks associated with the company's country are minimal. In combination with stringent business standards, shareholder rights are very highly protected.

INA.SW has poor trading liquidity. It will take at least a day or two for the average private investor to sell a common position under normal market conditions. Liquidity is very unstable and becomes extremely unfavourable on the days with the lowest activity. The trading volume mostly stays the same even under highly turbulent market conditions. Another factor to consider is the substantial number of days with zero trading volumes, i.e., without any ability to sell a position. 

No other major risks have been identified.

The risk of default is high. Among the negative credit factors, we point to weak positions in its industry, slow historical revenue growth, bleak profitability, negligible return on capital, inadequate interest coverage, and poor cash flow generation. We note low margin volatility and an favourable capital structure, among the positive credit factors. 

In highly turbulent market conditions, INA.SW is not volatile. In other words, the stock will fall far less than the index in times of extreme market volatility or shocking company news. Standalone, the worst-day losses (less than 1% of the time) will likely be very low. 

In normal market circumstances, INA.SW is not volatile. Put differently, without outstanding market volatility or shocking company news, the stock's price will stay within a narrow range. The stock's losses on its worst days (less than 1-5% of the time) will range from very low to negligible. 

From both historical and forecast perspectives, the stock is considerably overpriced compared to similar stocks. Specifically, the stock is 'expensive' on P/E, overvalued on EV/EBITD. 

Ina Invest Holding AG

CHF 22.1

3

Ina Invest Holding AG

CHF 22.1

3

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

Risk factor

Profitability factor

CHF 22.1

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