The average target price of LOGG3.SA is 25 and suggests 30% upside potential. Usually, this means a BUY recommendation among investment firms, or a recommendation to increase one's position in this instrument in the next 12 months. The most optimistic analyst has a target price of 35.0. This translates into 84% upside potential in the best case. On the other hand, the most pessimistic analyst has a target price of 17.5. This is equivalent to 8% downside potential in the worst case. 

LOG Commercial Properties e Participações S.A. develops, constructs, and rents commercial properties in Brazil. The company offers logistics condominiums, shopping centers, and strip malls, as well as allots industrial parks. The company was formerly known as MRV Logística E Participações S.A. LOG Commercial Properties e Participações S.A. was founded in 2008 and is based in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.

Brazil

LOG Commercial Properties e Participações S.A.

Real Estate

The company pays dividends most of the time. It has paid dividends in almost every one of the past ten years. Dividend per share (DPS) has grown yearly, and there is an evident trend. In the past 12 months, the dividend yield has been outstanding and can be rated excellent compared to its peers. At the same time, the average five-year yield has been significantly higher and exceeded nearly all its peers. On average, the company pays dividends annually. 

LOGG3.SA reported revenue of BRL 422mn in the last 12 months, up 92% from FY23. At the same time, the dynamics of cash flow, as measured by free cash flow (FCF), were drastically different. EPS grew 90% from FY23 to BRL 3.67. Market expects EPS to reach BRL 2.24 in FY25.

Over the last six months, the stock performance has varied, with an increase following a drop. The stock's price trend wasn't definitive when matched against its global counterparts from the same sector and industry (as depicted above). Within the past six months, its performance has trailed this peer group's by 5ppts and its growth accelerated by 8ppts in the past month. This is equally valid for peers from the same country and industry. Given the stock's valuation versus its peers, its total price movement is neither favourable nor unfavourable.

LOG Commercial Properties e Participações S.A. reported a return on equity (RoE) of 9.4% in the last 12 months, up from 5.3% in FY23. The market consensus projects an RoE of 12.7% in FY24, again ahead of its peers. 

Another important profitability metric, return on assets (RoA), amounted to 5.3% in the last 12 months, an increase from 3.1% in FY23. The market analysts predict that RoA will be 7.1% in FY24, again stronger than its peers. 

In the last 12 months, the return on capital employed (RoCE) grew to 5.9%, above the peers. The consensus estimate for FY24 for RoCE is 11.2%, again ahead of the peers. 

The ratio of return on invested capital (RoIC) to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) has been 0.9 in the past several years. This ratio implies a poor shareholder value creation. 

The institutional, legal, and compliance risks associated with the company's country are close to minimal. In combination with rigorous business standards, shareholder rights are well protected.

LOGG3.SA has average trading liquidity. The average private investor can sell his common position in the stock in a single trading day. Liquidity is relatively stable and remains mildly favourable on the days with the lowest activity. The trading volume mostly stays the same even under highly turbulent market conditions. The stock has a small market capitalisation, which usually makes its trading liquidity erratic and unpredictable. 

No other major risks have been identified.

The risk of default is moderate. We note resilient historical revenue growth and robust profitability, among the positive credit factors. Among the negative credit factors, we point to weak positions in its industry, excessive margin volatility, poor working capital management, and weak debt servicing capacity.

In highly turbulent market conditions, LOGG3.SA is as volatile as an index. In other words, the stock will move with the index in times of extreme market volatility or shocking company news. Standalone, the worst-day losses (less than 1% of the time) will likely be limited. 

In normal market circumstances, LOGG3.SA is moderately volatile. Put differently, without outstanding market volatility or shocking company news, the stock's price will move slightly wider than the index. The stock's losses on its worst days (less than 1-5% of the time) will range from low to mild. We would also like to highlight the mild intraday volatility of the instrument. 

Considering past and projected metrics, the stock is neither 'expensive' nor 'cheap' compared to its peers. Specifically, the stock is 'cheap' on P/E, neutral on EV/EBITD. 

LOG Commercial Properties e Participações S.A.

R$ 18.75

5

LOG Commercial Properties e Participações S.A.

R$ 18.75

5

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

Risk factor

Profitability factor

R$ 18.75

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