The average target price of NOG is 37 and suggests 25% upside potential. Usually, this means a BUY recommendation among investment firms, or a recommendation to increase one's position in this instrument in the next 12 months. The most optimistic analyst has a target price of 50.0. This translates into 68% upside potential in the best case. On the other hand, the most pessimistic analyst has a target price of 27.0. This is equivalent to 9% downside potential in the worst case. 

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States. The company primarily holds interests in the Williston Basin, the Appalachian Basin, and the Permian Basin in the United States. As of December 31, 2021, it owned working interests in 7,436 gross producing wells; and had proved reserves of 287,682 million barrels of oil equivalent. The company is based in Minnetonka, Minnesota.

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.

Energy

The company pays dividends most of the time. It has paid dividends in almost every one of the past ten years. Dividend per share (DPS) has grown yearly, and there is an evident trend. In the past 12 months, the dividend yield has been outstanding and can be rated excellent compared to its peers. At the same time, the average five-year yield has been significantly higher and exceeded most of its peers. On average, the company pays dividends every four months. 

NOG reported revenue of USD 2 405mn in the last 12 months, up 4% from FY24. At the same time, the dynamics of cash flow, as measured by free cash flow (FCF), were drastically different. EPS grew 25% from FY24 to USD 6.51. Market expects EPS to reach USD 5.28 in FY25.

Over the last six months, the stock performance has varied, with an increase following a drop. The stock's price trend wasn't definitive when matched against its global counterparts from the same sector and industry (as depicted above). Within the past six months, its performance has trailed this peer group's by 24ppts and its growth decelerated by 2ppts in the past month. This is equally valid for peers from the same country and industry. Given the stock's valuation versus its peers, its total price movement is neither favourable nor unfavourable.

The company has reported very strong EBITDA margins compared to its global peers in recent years. EBITDA margin amounted to 74.4% in the last 12 months, a decline from 85.1% in FY23. 

Historically, NOG has reported very strong net margins compared to its global peers. Specifically, in the last 12 months, this metric equalled 26.9%, down from 48.4% in FY23. 

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. reported a return on equity (RoE) of 29.1% in the last 12 months, down from 66.1% in FY23. The market consensus projects an RoE of 31.8% in FY24, again ahead of its peers. 

Another important profitability metric, return on assets (RoA), amounted to 12.8% in the last 12 months, a decrease from 25.1% in FY23. The market analysts predict that RoA will be 18.1% in FY24, again stronger than its peers. 

In the last 12 months, the return on capital employed (RoCE) declined to 14.1%, above the peers. The consensus estimate for FY24 for RoCE is 23.9%, again ahead of the peers. 

The ratio of return on invested capital (RoIC) to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) has been 4.0 in the past several years. This ratio implies a excellent shareholder value creation. 

The institutional, legal, and compliance risks associated with the company's country are minimal. In combination with stringent business standards, shareholder rights are very highly protected.

NOG boasts high trading liquidity. The average private investor can sell his common position in the stock immediately. Liquidity is usually very stable and remains extremely favourable on the days with the lowest activity. However, please consider that under highly turbulent market conditions, the trading volume tends to decrease significantly. 

No other major risks have been identified.

The risk of default is low. We note resilient historical revenue growth, robust profitability, solid return on capital, strong debt servicing capacity, adequate interest coverage, and solid cash flow generation, among the positive credit factors. Among the negative credit factors and we point to excessive margin volatility, poor working capital management.

In highly turbulent market conditions, NOG is volatile. In other words, the stock will fall much more than the index in times of extreme market volatility or shocking company news. Standalone, the worst-day losses (less than 1% of the time) will likely be large. 

In normal market circumstances, NOG is volatile. Put differently, without outstanding market volatility or shocking company news, the stock's price will move much wider than the index. The stock's losses on its worst days (less than 1-5% of the time) will range from large to immense. 

Based on key historical and expected multiples, the stock is undervalued relative to its peers. Specifically, the stock is 'cheap' on P/E, undervalued on EV/EBITD. 

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Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.

$ 29.71

6

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.

$ 29.71

6

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

About

About

Risk factor

Profitability factor

$ 29.71

About

About

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.

$ 29.71

6

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.

$ 29.71

6

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

About

About

Risk factor

Profitability factor

$ 29.71

About

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