ICONIQ Holding Limited operates as a green mobility technology company which defines the smart passenger vehicle (SPV) as a vehicle concept emphasizing AI technologies, autonomous driving, IoT connectivity, and a personalized passenger experience. The company's core technology advantages are characterized by modular pure electric platforms, digital on-board connectivity systems, continuously upgraded electric and electronic architectures, and autonomous driving technology. The company focuses on consumers and technology-savvy families and businesses. The company was founded in 2016 and is based in Dubai, United Arab Emirates with additional offices in Tianjin and Shanghai.

NWTN Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

The company does not pay dividends at all, or it pays them sporadically. There have only been a few years with dividend payments in the past ten years. 

NWTN reported revenue of USD 44mn in the last 12 months, up 18% from FY23. At the same time, the dynamics of cash flow, as measured by free cash flow (FCF), were drastically different. EPS fell 14% from FY23 to USD -0.79.

Over the last six months, the stock performance has varied, with an increase following a drop. The stock's price trend wasn't definitive when matched against its global counterparts from the same sector and industry (as depicted above). Over the past six months the stock has exceeded the performance of this peer group by 122ppts and its growth accelerated by 2ppts in the past month. This is equally valid for peers from the same country and industry. Given the stock's valuation versus its peers, its total price movement is favourable. This generally signifies that a stock is fairly valued or marginally undervalued abd is becoming more 'expensive', suggesting a short-term spike in confidence by the market at large.

The ratio of return on invested capital (RoIC) to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) has been -8.3 in the past several years. This ratio implies a fragile shareholder value creation. 

The institutional, legal, and compliance risks associated with the company's country are close to minimal. In combination with rigorous business standards, shareholder rights are well protected.

NWTN has poor trading liquidity. The average private investor can sell his common position in the stock in a single trading day under normal market conditions. Liquidity is very unstable and becomes extremely unfavourable on the days with the lowest activity. The trading volume mostly stays the same even under highly turbulent market conditions. The stock has a small market capitalisation, which usually makes its trading liquidity erratic and unpredictable. 

No other major risks have been identified.

The risk of default is moderate. We note low margin volatility and an favourable capital structure, among the positive credit factors. Among the negative credit factors, we point to slow historical revenue growth, bleak profitability, negligible return on capital, poor working capital management, and inadequate interest coverage.

In highly turbulent market conditions, NWTN is exceptionally volatile. In other words, the stock will be among the worst-performers in times of extreme market volatility or shocking company news. Standalone, the worst-day losses (less than 1% of the time) will likely be critical. 

In normal market circumstances, NWTN is exceptionally volatile. Put differently, without outstanding market volatility or shocking company news, the stock's price will change quite unpredictably. The stock's losses on its worst days (less than 1-5% of the time) will range from critical to immense. 

Based on key historical and expected multiples, the stock is greatly overvalued relative to its peers. 

NWTN Inc.

$ 1.57

2

NWTN Inc.

$ 1.57

2

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

Risk factor

Profitability factor

$ 1.57

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