Why the impact of conflict on prices may be more important than the loss of barrels

Iran war: what the oil market may be underestimating

A Latvian resident spent three years programming for a Russian company and received more than €60,000 on an Alfa Bank card. Now he <a href="https://vdd.gov.lv/en/news/press-releases/vdd-seeks-criminal-prosecution-against-a-person-for-providing-programming-services-to-a-company-in-russia">faces</a> criminal prosecution for violating EU sanctions against Russia. Oninvest found out how the Latvian State Security Service managed to find the programmer.

€60,000 in cash: how Latvia found out a programmer who worked for a Russian company

Founders with Russian roots in 2025 attracted just over $3 billion of foreign investment in their projects, which is comparable to the result of 2024. This means that the crisis of 2022-2023, when foreign investors turned away from Russian startups after the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, has been overcome. In 2026, Russian founders will have to deal with new serious problems, including tougher US immigration policy and Russia's inclusion in the EU's money laundering blacklist. How will this affect their business?

Startups with Russian roots attracted more than $3 billion in foreign investment in 2025. What awaits them in 2026? 

Switzerland's financial market regulator (FINMA) <a href="https://www.finma.ch/en/news/2026/02/20260227-mm-mbaer-liquidation/">said</a> on Feb. 27 that it had begun the process of liquidating MBaer Merchant Bank after Washington <a href="https://oninvest.com/article/ssa-namereny-otklucit-svejcarskij-bank-ot-finansovoj-sistemy-za-svazi-s-iranom-i-rf">threatened to</a> deny the Swiss private bank access to the U.S. financial system for violating sanctions against Iran, Russia and Venezuela.

Switzerland has closed a bank that the U.S. has accused of having ties to Iran and Russia

Swiss MBaer Merchant Bank may lose access to the U.S. financial system due to alleged ties to Iran and Russia, Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-26/us-says-swiss-bank-mbaer-could-lose-access-to-financial-system?embedded-checkout=true">writes </a>. According <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0408">to the </a>U.S. Treasury Department, its financial crime unit FinCEN is working to approve a rule that would prohibit U.S. financial institutions from opening or maintaining correspondent accounts for or on behalf of MBaer.

US set to cut Swiss bank off from financial system for ties to Iran and Russian Federation

This may be the first known case where a US investor has decided to "formalize" a new business project with a major Russian company in recent years, the NYT writes

Trump-linked investor to produce gas in Alaska with Russia's Novatek

Oil prices jumped 3% on Wednesday amid heightened tensions between the United States and Iran and the abrupt end of Russian-Ukrainian talks in Geneva just two hours after they began, Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-lose-ground-hopes-de-escalation-us-iran-tensions-2026-02-18/">reported</a>. Iran has temporarily blocked part of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil supply route - according to the official version, because of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps exercises. On Thursday, February 19, Iran and Russia <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/18/oil-prices-fall-slightly-on-hopes-of-de-escalation-from-us-iran-talks-.html">will conduct</a> joint exercises in the Sea of Oman and the northern part of the Indian Ocean. While the market is pricing in the risk of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a new wave of escalation, India - one of the biggest buyers of Russian oil - is cutting its imports to their lowest levels since 2022 and turning back to Middle Eastern suppliers, Reuters sources <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russian-share-indias-january-oil-142727785.html">said</a>. Against the backdrop of these shifts, an uncomfortable question arises: how marketable the Urals price and its discount to Brent remains, if the largest buyer of this oil is linked to its seller. Oil industry expert Sergey Vakulenko <a href="https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=25875782032030536&amp;id=100000762787435&amp;mibextid=wwXIfr&amp;rdid=gYshXuyY1DeOOMIo#">wrote a</a> great breakdown on his Facebook page, we publish it in full here

Who sets the Urals price in India - and what does Rosneft have to do with it?

The Carlyle Group Inc.

Exxon Mobil Corporation

Chevron Corporation

Russian oil company Lukoil has found a buyer for its foreign assets that may finally satisfy OFAC. This is the American Carlyle, an investment company with big connections in US political circles. What is it known for?

Washington Liaison: the story of Carlyle, the buyer of Lukoil's foreign assets

Rockwool A/S

Shares of the Danish industrial company Rockwool, the world's largest producer of stone wool insulation for buildings and infrastructure, collapsed at trading in Copenhagen by 7.7% - to 205 Danish kroner (about $35.7). During trading on January 13, quotations fell even by 10%, which was the sharpest one-day decline for them since August 20, Bloomberg<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-13/rockwool-shares-plunge-after-putin-seizes-its-russian-assets"> writes</a>.

Danish Rockwool shares plummet after seizure of assets in Russia

Washington insists that the new government in Caracas should cooperate in the oil sector only with the US.

Trump demanded Venezuela break ties with China and Russia — media

Oil States International, Inc.

Prices are also affected by tensions surrounding Venezuela and China's willingness to purchase more raw materials.


Oil prices rose by 2%. The market saw no progress in the negotiations between Trump and Zelensky.

Eni S.p.A.

BP p.l.c.

TotalEnergies SE

Shell plc

In October 2025, the US imposed blocking sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. This raised questions about the fate of their foreign assets, especially in the case of Lukoil, which is traditionally focused on international expansion. What scenarios and contenders for this company's foreign assets are currently being discussed?