Investors are always too eager to believe promises and too late to spot the risks, says billionaire Howard Marks 

Howard Marks got rich on distressed debt. What lesson does he see in the crash of 1929?

The Carlyle Group Inc.

Blue Owl Capital Inc.

Apollo Global Management, Inc.

BlackRock, Inc.

JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Citigroup Inc.

Fears are growing on Wall Street about a potential crisis in the private credit market. Investment firm PIMCO believes the roughly $2 trillion sector is in for a stress <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-06/pimco-says-private-debt-should-face-full-blown-default-cycle">test</a>. But a crisis for some is an opportunity for others. Independent analyst Mikhail Zavaraev discusses who can capitalize on the problems of the private lending sector.

Wall Street fears a crisis in the private credit market. Who can capitalize on it? 

Moody's Ratings worsened the outlook on U.S. business development companies (BDC), changing it from stable to negative on the background of growing applications for withdrawal of funds, increasing debt burden and complicating access to financing, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/moodys-cuts-outlook-us-bdcs-negative-redemption-pressure-rising-leverage-2026-04-07/">writes</a> Reuters. This decision of the rating agency increases tension in the market of private lending.

Moody's has worsened its outlook on private business lenders in the US. What is the threat to the market?

Just three prominent financiers, including iconic short-seller Michael Burry and the head of JPMorgan, have sounded the alarm in recent days about the growing risks in the private credit market. Here's what they said:

'It's 2007': three Wall Street veterans on the risks of the credit crisis

The fund received $5.4 billion in investor applications during the quarter

Blue Owl says "unprecedented" rise in withdrawal requests. What about the shares?

War in the Middle East. Energy crisis. A spike in inflation. By all canons of macroeconomics, gold should have been rising, but it fell for most of March. The clue to this lies in the cracks that went down in the $2 trillion private credit market, believes Michael Portnoy, senior partner at <a href="https://movchans.com/ru/">Movchan's Group</a>, who manages the Liquid Alpha Income Fund strategy.

Gold prices have collapsed nearly 20% from this year's high. Will they recover? Forecast

Tesla, Inc.

Bharti Airtel Limited

US President Donald Trump is ready to end the US military campaign against Iran even if the <a href="https://oninvest.com/article/cto-nuzno-znat-ob-ormuzskom-prolive-samom-vaznom-v-mire-neftanom-transportnom-uzle">Strait of Hormuz</a> remains partially closed. Gold rose on this background, although persistent geopolitical risks and expensive energy limit its growth potential. About these and other topics - in our review of key events for the morning of March 31.

Main by morning: Trump may end war without supply decision, gold rises

Ares Management Corporation

A non-public private credit fund managed by alternative investment specialist Ares Management - Ares Strategic Income Fund (ASIF) - recorded its largest monthly loss ever in February, indicating deterioration in the roughly $1.8 trillion private credit market.

Ares private credit fund records worst monthly performance in history

Morgan Stanley

The private credit market does not pose a systemic risk to the financial system despite redemption requests from individual retail funds, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9wqrdkx8ppo">told</a> the BBC. He also categorically rejected comparisons of the current situation in the markets with the crisis of 2007-2008, which some analysts and researchers said earlier.

"Zero similarities": Larry Fink rejected comparing the private credit market to the 2008 crisis

Bank of America Corporation

Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft

Aegon Ltd.

The day before, the bank's strategists recommended clients to short the securities of 17 European financial companies, including Deutsche Bank, because of the risks to which they are exposed due to the private lending sector

BofA withdraws advice to bet against EU financial firms due to 'errors of fact'

Blackstone Inc.

Wealthy investors tried to withdraw more than $10 billion from several of the largest private credit funds in the first quarter, forcing management companies to limit withdrawals. This jeopardized one of the key sources of growth for Wall Street and prompted comparisons among some market participants to the first signs of the 2008 financial crisis, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/3103e960-5e54-4cff-a439-b61a77ab21bd">writes the</a> Financial Times.

'Bubble deflated': investors take billions out of private credit funds

Wall Street is "trading threateningly along the lines of 2007-2008," Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a note to clients. In his opinion, the jump in oil prices amid the war with Iran and growing market fears around private lending resemble in market activity the period preceding the global financial crisis of 2008, Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-13/bofa-s-hartnett-warns-markets-are-starting-to-look-like-2008?embedded-checkout=true">writes</a>.

Lending