Freedom says buy Italian luxury brand Brunello Cucinelli with 34% upside

Freedom Finance has issued a report rating shares of Italian luxury cashmere brand Brunello Cucinelli as a "buy," forecasting 34% upside from current levels. The firm notes that Brunello Cucinelli continues to deliver double-digit revenue growth and believes it is capable of expanding even amid turbulence in the luxury market.

Freedom Finance recommends “buy” on shares of Italian luxury brand Brunello Cucinelli. The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in the luxury market in 2026, according to Michael Chistyakov, head of investment research at Freedom Finance. He sees potential for the stock to rise to EUR110 per share, which is about 34% above the current level.

Brunello Cucinelli stands out versus competitors due to its multichannel sales model, exclusive boutique network, and Made in Italy positioning – products are manufactured by Italian artisan workshops and at the company’s own production facilities, which appeals to affluent customers.

Freedom notes that in 2025 the company completed its 2024-2026 investment program early as it doubled the size of its key factory and opened two new tailoring facilities. As capex declines, free cash flow could reach about EUR185 million by 2027 – roughly double the 2024 level, Chistyakov estimates.

According to preliminary company figures, revenue in 2025 increased 11.5% year over year at constant exchange rates to EUR1.41 billion, driven by retail growth of 12.9%, including a 14.5% increase in the fourth quarter alone. Asia delivered the strongest regional performance, with revenue growth of 15.3%. Brunello Cucinelli expects revenue of about EUR1.8 billion by 2028.

Freedom notes that the company’s presence in various international markets exposes it to geopolitical and macroeconomic risks. In addition, Brunello Cucinelli, known for its cashmere products, depends on the availability of this and other raw materials, whose prices are difficult to predict. Another concern is that relationships with many manufacturers are not governed by multiyear agreements but are based on seasonal production orders, Freedom adds.

Brunello Cucinelli shares have declined 34% over the last 12 months. In September, the stock lost nearly 19% in two days after short seller Morpheus Research alleged that the brand continued operating in Russia.

Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of Brunello Cucinelli in January 2026 with an “overweight” rating and a EUR130 per share target price – the highest on Wall Street – implying about 58.6% upside from the closing price on Wednesday, February 4. The high-end ready-to-wear segment remains one of Morgan Stanley’s preferred themes for 2026, according to a note seen by Oninvest. The bank believes Brunello Cucinelli is well positioned to sustain steady, balanced growth even amid turbulence in the luxury sector.

Currently, nine of 16 analysts rate the stock “buy” or “overweight,” six recommend “hold,” and one “sell,” according to MarketScreener data. The average target price of EUR107.70 per share implies about 31.4% upside.