Morning in New York: Stock market players capitalize on post-holiday momentum

Daily review and forecast of events on the US stock market by Mikhail Denislavov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

The focus of participants in the upcoming session will be on the final data for the manufacturing sector business activity index for December (consensus: 51–52 points, preliminary estimate: 51.8). If the actual result matches the forecast, it will signal positive trends for the industry and support risk appetite in cyclical and industrial stocks. Construction spending statistics for November will also be released today. However, macro releases are unlikely to be independent drivers of price movements. First and foremost, the data will be perceived as background confirmation of the stability of investment activity.

Futures on US stock indices are showing upward momentum. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming trading session as positive with average volatility. We expect the S&P 500 to fluctuate within the range of 6800–6900 points (from −0.7% to +0.8% relative to the previous session's closing level).

— Pharmaceutical companies will raise prices on 350 branded drugs in the US in 2026, with a median increase of around 4%. The market is likely to view this as a factor supporting healthcare sector revenue and margins, despite the associated regulatory risks.

—TSMC (TSM) has received official permission for one year to supply American equipment for chip production to its plant in Nanjing.

— A $2.7 billion contract with the US Department of Defense to service Apache helicopters, in addition to a $4.7 billion order for AH-64E helicopters and simulators, strengthens Boeing's (BA) defense portfolio, keeping its shares slightly up in premarket trading.

— The Court of Appeals ruled in favor of Sable Offshore (SOC) on the issue of restarting part of the Santa Ynez pipeline system. Against this backdrop, the company's shares rose more than 20% before the opening of regular trading.

US stock exchanges were closed on January 1 due to New Year celebrations. Trading on December 31 on US stock exchanges ended in the red. The S&P 500 lost 0.74%, the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.84%, the Dow Jones declined 0.63%, and the Russell 2000 corrected 0.75%.

All sectors included in the broad market index, primarily technology (XLK: −0.99%) and real estate (XLRE: −0.91%), closed in negative territory. The stocks of the "Magnificent Seven" also ended up in negative territory, with Tesla (TSLA: −1.04%) remaining under the most pressure.

The market ended the last trading day of 2025 in a moderately pessimistic mood. The expected seasonal New Year's boost did not materialize. There were no notable news events capable of supporting prices.

The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week was 199,000, compared to a consensus of 208,000 and a final estimate for the previous period of 215,000. The number of repeat claims was 1.866 million, which was also lower than the forecasted 1.935 million and the previous result of 1.913 million (final estimate).

— The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has accepted for review and designated priority review for Axsome Therapeutics' (AXSM: +22.8%) sNDA for AXS-05 for the treatment of agitation in Alzheimer's disease. A decision is expected on April 30, 2026.

—Ondas Holdings (ONDS: +8.8%) announced new orders worth $10 million for autonomous systems.

—Corcept Therapeutics (CORT: −50.4%) received a negative opinion from the FDA on its drug Relacorilant. The regulator pointed to the lack of sufficient evidence of efficacy and the inability to assess the risk-benefit ratio of this product without additional data.

— Hyatt Hotels (H: −2%) management revised its EBITDA guidance for 2025, shifting it to the lower end of the previous range due to canceled reservations and damage from Hurricane Melissa.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor