Polymarket refused to pay out winnings on bets on a US "invasion" of Venezuela
The platform does not consider Trump's words that the US will control Venezuela to be evidence.
The Polymarket prediction market platform is refusing to pay out millions of dollars in winnings on bets made on a US invasion of Venezuela, according to the Financial Times. The company disputes the claim that the US operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro meets the terms of the bet: it is only willing to pay out if the US armed forces take control of Venezuelan territory.
Details
Polymarket states on its betting page that contracts with the question "Will the US invade Venezuela by ...?" will be settled if the US "launches a military operation aimed at establishing control over any part of Venezuela's territory" before one of three available dates in 2026: January 31, March 31, and December 31.
"Otherwise, this contract will be settled with a 'no' answer. [...] The outcome of this market will be determined by a consensus of reliable sources," the platform's website states. It only received regulatory approval to operate legally in the US in July 2025.
US President Donald Trump's statement that the US will manage Venezuela, along with references to negotiations with the Venezuelan government, does not allow Maduro's abduction to be classified as an "invasion," Polymarket said in a note to the same contact.
Polymarket's position provoked a negative reaction from users, some of whom had bet tens of thousands of dollars on a US invasion: discontent was expressed, in particular, in comments on the contract page, writes the FT. Currently, more than $10.5 million has been bet on Polymarket's contract regarding a possible US invasion of Venezuela, with most of the bets placed on the January 31 deadline, the newspaper added.
What bets were placed
Polymarket recognized a similar contract with different wording as fulfilled: "Will US forces appear in Venezuela by ...?" a few hours after Saturday's operation, the FT notes.
In addition, an anonymous trader was able to turn $34,000 into nearly $410,000 by betting on Nicolas Maduro's removal from the Venezuelan presidency by January 31, The Wall Street Journal reported on January 5. The account, created on December 26, a few days before the US operation, made a series of bets on four issues related to US actions in Venezuela. For example, this user bet on Maduro's removal by the end of January at a time when the "yes" bet was trading at an average of 7 cents — which corresponded to a 7% probability of his removal. After Maduro was taken out of the country on January 3, this market was settled at 100 cents, the FT writes.
Shortly before midnight on January 2, the probability of Maduro's removal on Polymarket rose to 11%, and in the early hours of January 3, it jumped sharply, indicating a sudden change in positions just before Trump posted on Truth Social that Maduro was in US custody, the BBC notes.
"This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a transaction based on insider information," Better Markets CEO Dennis Kelleher told CBS. On January 5, U.S. Congressman Richie Torres proposed a bill that would prohibit insiders from "participating in transactions involving contracts on prediction markets," the FT reports.
This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor
