Top stories for the morning: criminal pressure on Fed chief, gold record and Iranian scenarios

In the US, the conflict over the independence of the Fed has escalated due to criminal pressure on Jerome Powell. Donald Trump's administration is discussing military and non-military scenarios against Iran amid mass protests. China, despite betting on AI, electric cars and robotics, can't compensate for a prolonged collapse in real estate. About these and other topics - in our review of key events for the morning of January 12.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the U.S. Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation related to the $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed's headquarters and his congressional testimony, CNBC reports. According to Powell, the case against him is a consequence of pressure from US President Donald Trump, who is unhappy with the pace and scope of rate cuts. He warned that the outcome of the investigation would be a test of the Fed's ability to make decisions based on economics rather than political pressure.

The White House denies linking the investigation to monetary policy, but critics call what is happening an attack on the Fed's independence, CNBC points out. Republicans and Democrats in the Senate have sharply criticized the administration's actions, and analysts warn of the risk of "sell America" - a fall in the dollar, stocks and bonds and an increase in demand for protective assets, including gold.

US President Donald Trump is considering possible measures against Iran - from military strikes to cyber and economic steps, US media reported, citing sources familiar with the situation. According to the WSJ interlocutors, Trump's aides will present options to the US president on Tuesday. In recent days, Trump has publicly demanded that Iranian authorities not use force against protesters and said the U.S. is "ready to help [the protesters]."

The discussion is taking place against the backdrop of the largest anti-government protests in Iran since 2022: over the past three weeks, according to human rights activists, more than 500 people have died there. In Washington, there is no unanimity on intervention: some congressmen warn about the risks of escalation and historical lessons, while others call for increased pressure on the regime. Tehran, for its part, has threatened to strike U.S. and Israeli bases in the event of an American attack.

US President Donald Trump said he is leaning toward excluding ExxonMobil from possible projects in Venezuela after the company's head was skeptical about the prospects for investment in the country following the ouster of Nicolas Maduro, AP reports. Trump was not satisfied with the Exxon chief's position, calling the current conditions "unsuitable for investment," despite assurances from the White House that American companies would work directly with the United States and not with Venezuelan authorities.

The Trump administration is banking on the involvement of U.S. oil producers in Venezuela's reconstruction and is effectively taking control of its oil exports. The US is already seizing tankers, managing sales of tens of millions of barrels of Venezuelan oil and intends to control these operations on the global market, viewing the "management" of Venezuela primarily in economic logic, the agency notes.

Gold rose to a record high of almost $4600 per ounce after reports of possible criminal prosecution of the Fed by the U.S. Department of Justice, which again exacerbated concerns about the independence of the U.S. central bank, Bloomberg reports. Jerome Powell's statements about political pressure intensified investors' flight to protective assets; silver also approached the historical maximum.

An additional growth factor was the escalation of protests in Iran and Donald Trump's harsh foreign policy rhetoric, which increased geopolitical uncertainty. Analysts note that the combination of institutional risks, global conflicts and weakening confidence in the dollar continues to support demand for gold and silver.

The development of high-tech industries in China - artificial intelligence, robotics and electric vehicles - is not yet able to compensate for the large-scale decline in real estate and traditional sectors, CNBC reports citing analysts. Rhodium Group estimates that new industries will add only 0.8 percentage points (p.p.) to GDP between 2023 and 2025, while real estate and related industries will shrink by a combined 6 p.p., raising doubts about the achievability of the economy's growth target of around 5%.

Analysts warn that the bias in favor of technology does not solve the employment problem and increases China's dependence on exports, making the economy more vulnerable to new trade restrictions. According to KKR calculations, weakness in the real estate market could take away 1.2 p.p. of China's GDP growth already this year, while automation and productivity growth threaten significant job losses with a limited recovery in consumer demand.

- The Tokyo Stock Exchange is closed on January 12 due to holidays.

- Hong Kong index Hang Seng rose at the trading on January 12 by 1.1%. CSI 300 index of mainland China - by 0.45%.

- In South Korea, the Kospi index was up 0.16 percent, while the Kosdaq was down 0.25 percent.

- Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was up 0.48 percent.

- S&P 500 futures were down 0.65%, Nasdaq Composite futures were down 0.98%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average exchange-traded contracts were down 0.5%.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor