Yardeni Research has improved its outlook for gold. It expects prices to rise by 30% in 2026

The analytical company Yardeni Research, which predicted that gold will rise to $4000 per troy ounce this year, has improved its target price for the end of 2026. Yardeni Research, founded by a former Fed economist and one of Wall Street's most quoted strategists, predicts gold will more than double in price by the end of the decade.

"When the price of an ounce of gold rose above $3,000 earlier this year, we forecast it would reach $4,000 by the end of the year and $5,000 by the end of next year," Yardeni Research recalled in a note to clients cited by MarketWatch. - Gold broke the $4500 mark this evening. We are raising our 2026 year-end target to $6000 and still expect to reach $10,000 by the end of the decade."

Yardeni's new benchmark assumes a one-third increase in the precious metal's price over the next year. This is one of the most optimistic targets on Wall Street: for example, JPMorgan expects gold to rise to $5055 per ounce by the end of 2026.

Yardeni notes that on short time frames, gold and the S&P 500 Index tend to show divergent dynamics, but over the long term move in a single uptrend. "The gold price is rapidly approaching the numerical value of the S&P 500 Index. If it reaches 10,000 [points] by the end of 2029, as we expect, gold should trade at $10,000," the note said.

In 2025, the price of an ounce increased by 60%, showing the best dynamics in 46 years, calculated MarketWatch. The rally was spurred by deteriorating sentiment toward riskier assets and in particular fears of an AI bubble, CNBC explains . On Tuesday, Dec. 23, gold futures for February delivery hit an all-time high for the second day in a row, rising to $4530.8 before erasing some of the gains. The spot price of the precious metal in the morning of December 24 jumped by 0.5%, for the first time overcoming $4500 per ounce. The day before, it set the 50th daily record since the beginning of the year.

The Yardeni Research team wrote that it took a bullish stance on gold in early 2024, when the price surpassed the $2000 mark. At that time, analysts assumed that central banks would step up purchases of the precious metal after the U.S. and EU froze Russia's international reserves. Recently, the rally has again been supported by geopolitical risks - tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela and new attacks on Russian ports by Ukraine, MarketWatch points out. According to Yardeni, gold is also supported by expectations that central banks will resort to issuing money to reduce the real debt burden.

"We suspect that precious metals prices may be signaling concerns about an over-stimulative combination of monetary and fiscal policy in the U.S. next year," the research firm said.

Even if the Fed doesn't cut rates in early 2026, the regulator will buy about $40 billion in Treasury bills each month through April, analysts said. In addition, many U.S. households could get a $1,000-$2,000 refund from the government next year, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has allowed $2,000 checks to be sent out as "tariff dividends." As a result, the budget deficit could widen sharply, triggering a rise in bond yields and a correction in the stock market, Yardeni said.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor