Two strategies and four stocks with a growth outlook at any oil price

The Iranian crisis of 2026 reminded investors how unpredictable the oil market is. After the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March, Brent quotes soared to $120 per barrel, while Dubai crude at one point hit an all-time high of over $166. The International Energy Agency called it the largest oil supply disruption in history.

In such conditions, a simple bet on price growth actually turns into a game of roulette. However, there are at least two investment strategies that can potentially work regardless of the direction of oil prices.

If a company's business remains profitable even at $40-50 per barrel, it remains sustainable in most market scenarios. When prices are high, such companies make excessive profits, and when prices fall, they continue to generate cash flow, while higher-cost players start to operate at a loss. This approach works best in a volatile environment. The key risk is a prolonged decline in oil prices below $50 per barrel.

Chord Energy (NASDAQ: CHRD)

Chord Energy is one example of such a strategy. The company operates in the Williston Basin with a breakeven threshold of about $40-45 per barrel of WTI, which gives it resilience even in a weak market. On a call with investors on February 26, 2026, Chord Energy CEO Denny Brown noted that since 2021, the company has returned $6.7 billion to shareholders, an amount greater than its current market capitalization.

For 2026, Chord Energy forecasts free cash flow of $700 mln at a base price of $64 per barrel of WTI, and at current prices above $90 the potential for cache generation is significantly higher. The stock has already responded: since the beginning of the year, the shares are up more than 50%. An additional sustainability factor is the high share of long horizontal wells (about 80% of reserves), which has reduced exploration and development costs by 22%.

On March 5, 2026, analyst Josh Silverstein of UBS raised his target price on shares of Chord Energy from $119 to $142, maintaining a Buy recommendation. On the same day, Mark Lear of Piper Sandler raised his price target from $151 to $158, reiterating an Overweight rating (expecting above-market growth). According to MarketWatch, the company's securities are advised to buy by 16 analysts, five more to hold and only one to sell. The average target price is $150.8, with a potential upside of 6% from the closing price on April 2.

Matador Resources (NYSE: MTDR)

Matador Resources demonstrates a similar model with a focus on the Delaware basin: in 2026, the company plans to increase oil production by 3% - to 123 thousand barrels per day - while reducing capex by 11% - to $1.5 billion. An important element is protection against price risks: about 50% of production is insured by option structures with a "Paul" of about $53 and a "ceiling" of about $66 per barrel, which ensures a minimum level of cash flow even in a volatile market. In the fourth quarter of 2025, production reached a record 211 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day and proved reserves increased by 9% to 667 million barrels.

The stock has added more than 45% since the beginning of 2026. On March 20, 2026, analysts at JPMorgan raised their target price from $54 to $67, maintaining an Overweight rating. On March 17, Mizuho increased the target from $70 to $76, leaving the Outperform rating unchanged (buy recommendation on the stock). According to MarketWatch, Matador Resources shares are advised to buy by 18 analysts, with seven more recommending a hold. The average price target is $68.14, with a potential upside of 8%.

Notably, the big players - ExxonMobil, Chevron and Shell - also have low breakeven thresholds (below $50), but their diversified business model (refining, marketing, chemicals) mitigates their sensitivity to rising oil prices. As a result, they are lagging behind in the current rally in terms of returns: since the beginning of the year, Chord Energy shares are up 53%, Matador - 48%, while Exxon Mobil has added 33.5%, Chevron - 30.5%, Shell - about 29%.

While the first strategy focuses on sustainable profitability at prices above $50 per barrel, the second strategy focuses on reducing dependence on prices themselves. Companies involved in the transportation and processing of hydrocarbons earn their money primarily on volumes, not on the cost of raw materials. Simply put, as long as oil and gas continue to physically move through the pipes, this business generates a relatively stable cash flow.

Kinetik Holdings (NYSE: KNTK)

Kinetik Holdings is a typical representative of an infrastructure strategy in the Delaware Basin with a capitalization of over $7 billion. The company earns money from gas gathering, compression, processing and transportation, operating primarily under fixed fee contracts, which makes cash flows more predictable. For 2026, adjusted EBITDA guidance is $950 million-$1.05 billion (up 7% year-over-year) and dividend yield is about 7% with a quarterly payout of $0.81 per share, with a target dividend growth rate of 3-5% per year.

An additional upside is the extension in 2025 of key contracts with its largest customers into the mid-2030s with a shift to a fixed-fee model, which strengthens the sustainability of the business. The stock has already added about 29% since the start of 2026, and Scotiabank analysts have raised their target price to $51, maintaining an Outperform recommendation. Since the beginning of the year, the company's stock price has risen nearly 30%. Kinetik Holdings shares have 13 buy recommendations from Wall Street analysts and four more hold recommendations. The average target is $49.9, with a potential upside of about 6.9%.

However, such business is not completely insulated from risks: Kinetik Holdings is directly dependent on drilling activity in the region. If producers cut production amid low prices, pumping volumes fall, and with them revenue, even if contracts are in place.

USA Compression Partners (NYSE: USAC)

USA Compression Partners is closer to a "pure" infrastructure model: unlike Kinetik, the company is not involved in refining, but specializes in compression services - a critical element needed regardless of gas prices. This makes the business less sensitive to commodity fluctuations.

The dividend yield is about 7.5% with a quarterly payout of $0.525 per share and a capitalization of about $3.9 billion. The company pays dividends consistently, making it attractive to income-oriented investors. For 2026, Adjusted EBITDA guidance is $770 million-$800 million (25-30% year-over-year growth), with the major contribution to growth coming from the acquisition of J-W Power's service company in January 2026.

Since the beginning of the year, shares of USA Compression Partners have added about 20%. At the same time, the securities are characterized by low volatility: the beta coefficient at 0.16 means that they react weakly to market movements (historically, about 1.6% when the market changes by 10%). In late February, analysts at Stifel Nicolaus raised their target price from $27 to $30, maintaining a Hold rating. On March 9, 2026 Texas Capital upgraded the rating to Strong Buy, raising the target price from $26 to $31. According to MarketWatch, two Wall Street analysts advise buying the company's stock, while four advise holding. The average target is $29, suggesting the stock is up about 5%.

Does not constitute individualized investment advice.