Where to invest $10,000 in November: Between America and China
Active negotiations between the US and China, sanctions policy and the US shutdown determine the composition of the portfolio in November. Alexander Orlov, Managing Director of Arbat Capital, proposed a strategy that balances both investors' expectations and the results of specific companies.
$4,000 in storm protection
In the U.S., the Fed's tactics are still at the top of the agenda. On October 29, the regulator cut the rate by 0.25 p.p., as promised - for the second time this year. However, for confident further actions, whether it is a decrease or increase, there is still not enough data, as stated by the head of the Fed Jerome Powell: because of the shutdown government agencies are not working, no one collects the necessary statistics for the U.S. central bank, and there is not enough data to make decisions.
Now, during the expectation of further rate cuts, investors are eyeing 20-year bonds, which are primarily benefiting from this.
Alexander Orlov suggests paying attention to TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF): "This is the most protective option among ETFs. Even if the rate cut doesn't happen in November, its price is likely to rise next year if policy eases."
Year-to-date, TLT is up 1.32% (as of the close of trading on Nov. 5).
$2,000 in fear
The second interesting investment option for November is the iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) Fear Index ETF. It's a bet on market volatility. The index rises when the stock market falls, but it also has the highest risks. As the name suggests, this is a short-term bet on a pessimistic scenario: holding such positions for a long time is not profitable because of the contango effect (the difference between the current and future futures price, which increases the cost of holding the position). You can enter VXX for a couple of weeks at most.
"If the market does not move in the right direction(does not fall - Oninvest note), the position should be closed quickly," warns Alexander Orlov.
$1,000 to the Chinese Internet
A longer-term idea is the KWEB China Stock ETF (KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF), an exchange-traded fund on the CSI Overseas China Internet Index (^H11137), which includes large technology companies such as Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu.
Companies from this index are traded outside mainland China: in Hong Kong, on NYSE, on Nasdaq. Since the beginning of the year, it has added 35.18% (as of the close on November 5).
"As a new round of US-China trade war seems to be postponed and many tariffs have been reduced, the Chinese market may show a recovery," explains Arbat Capital's Managing Director.
KWEB's U.S. "sibling", the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), is up 15.61% YTD (as of the close on November 5).
$3,000 to the beneficiaries of the sanctions:
$1,000 into palladium
The rising star among commodity companies now is Sibanye-Stillwater (SBSW), a South African mining company. On November 6, the company reported a three-fold year-on-year increase in adjusted EBITDA to $560 million. The company publishes financial statements semi-annually.
"Sibanye-Stillwater has a subsidiary in the US - Stillwater Mining, the only palladium producer in the country. If the U.S. imposes sanctions on Russian palladium (one of the few metals for which there are no restrictions so far), palladium prices could rise strongly."
Over the past year, the price per ounce of palladium is up 37.82% (as of Nov. 6).
In addition to capitalizing on political risks, there is another argument. The company is sensitive to gold prices, and if the price of an ounce rises to $4,000, it has the opportunity to expand production even at less profitable mines - this increases the profitability potential. Since the beginning of the year, its shares have risen by 209.26% (as of the close on November 5).
$1,000 to rare earth metals
The absolute star of 2025 is rare earth metals. After talks between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Beijing promised to suspend export restrictions on rare earth metals. But only for a year. Therefore, agreements with other countries take on special significance.
The agreement, which the U.S. signed with Australia on October 20, concerns the mining, processing and supply of rare earth metals worth $8.5 billion. And here we can pay attention to Lynas Rare Earths (LYC.AX) , an Australian company that is actually engaged in mining and processing of rare earth metals. Its advantage is that it is one of two large companies outside China (along with MP Materials in the United States) that can ensure a stable supply of this group of metals.
"The long-term outlook for this sector is strong," says Arbat Capital's managing director, "demand for rare earths will grow with the development of high technology and artificial intelligence(read more here). And specifically Lynas Rare Earths has already posted a 104.35% YTD gain (as of the close on Nov. 6)
$1,000 to the energy industry
The choice of a third commodity company is based on both expectations of growth for technology companies and uncertainty over how Europe will cope with a shortage of Russian gas.
This is where Range Resources (RRC), a US shale gas producer, stands out.
"European gas storage facilities are not fully filled now, and with a cold winter and reduced LNG supplies, there could be a shortage. In addition, demand for energy for data centers and AI is growing in the US, and gas-fired generation will play an important role here. An additional plus is the commissioning of new LNG export terminals in the US, which will allow the export of surplus gas and increase prices."
The sector is also attracting the attention of big players like ExxonMobil and Chevron, which can buy promising shale assets. RRC's share price is hovering around $35 (plus or minus $5) for the whole of 2025, but the grounds for growth are significant.
This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor
