The average target price of AGL is 4.5 and suggests 56% upside potential. Usually, this means a BUY recommendation among investment firms, or a recommendation to increase one's position in this instrument in the next 12 months. The most optimistic analyst has a target price of 8.5. This translates into 194% upside potential in the best case. On the other hand, the most pessimistic analyst has a target price of 2.0. This is equivalent to 31% downside potential in the worst case. 

agilon health, inc. offers healthcare services for seniors through primary care physicians in the communities of the United States. As of December 31, 2021, it served approximately 238,000 senior members, which included 186,300 medicare advantage members and 51,700 medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries. The company was formerly known as Agilon Health Topco, Inc. and changed its name to agilon health, inc. in March 2021. agilon health, inc. was founded in 2016 and is based in Austin, Texas.

agilon health, inc.

Healthcare

The company does not pay dividends at all, or it pays them sporadically. There have only been a few years with dividend payments in the past ten years. 

AGL reported revenue of USD 6 061mn in the last 12 months, up 33% from FY23. At the same time, the dynamics of cash flow, as measured by free cash flow (FCF), were drastically different. EPS grew 17% from FY23 to USD -0.62. Market expects EPS to reach USD -0.56 in FY25.

Over the last six months, the stock performance has varied, with an increase following a drop. The stock's price trend wasn't definitive when matched against its global counterparts from the same sector and industry (as depicted above). Over the past six months the stock has exceeded the performance of this peer group by 65ppts and its growth decelerated by 50ppts in the past month. This is equally valid for peers from the same country and industry. Given the stock's valuation versus its peers, its total price movement is neither favourable nor unfavourable.

The company has reported very poor EBITDA margins compared to its global peers in recent years. EBITDA margin amounted to -3.8% in the last 12 months, up from -4.1% in FY23. 

Historically, AGL has reported very poor net margins compared to its global peers. Specifically, in the last 12 months, this metric equalled -4.1%, a growth from -4.7% in FY23. 

Another important profitability metric, return on assets (RoA), amounted to -14.5% in the last 12 months, a decrease from -12.5% in FY23. The market analysts predict that RoA will be -20.2% in FY24, again weaker than its peers. 

agilon health, inc. reported a return on equity (RoE) of -44.4% in the last 12 months, down from -25.3% in FY23. The market consensus projects an RoE of -53.2% in FY24, again behind its peers. 

In the last 12 months, the return on capital employed (RoCE) declined to -37.4%, below the peers. The consensus estimate for FY24 for RoCE is -44.4%, again behind the peers. 

The ratio of return on invested capital (RoIC) to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) has been -5.6 in the past several years. This ratio implies a fragile shareholder value creation. 

The institutional, legal, and compliance risks associated with the company's country are minimal. In combination with stringent business standards, shareholder rights are very highly protected.

AGL boasts high trading liquidity. The average private investor can sell his common position in the stock almost immediately. Liquidity is usually stable and remains extremely favourable on the days with the lowest activity. The trading volume mostly stays the same even under highly turbulent market conditions. 

No other major risks have been identified.

The risk of default is high. Among the negative credit factors, we point to bleak profitability, negligible return on capital, poor working capital management, inadequate interest coverage, and poor cash flow generation. We note resilient historical revenue growth, low margin volatility, and an favourable capital structure, among the positive credit factors. 

In highly turbulent market conditions, AGL is exceptionally volatile. In other words, the stock will be among the worst-performers in times of extreme market volatility or shocking company news. Standalone, the worst-day losses (less than 1% of the time) will likely be critical. 

In normal market circumstances, AGL is exceptionally volatile. Put differently, without outstanding market volatility or shocking company news, the stock's price will change quite unpredictably. The stock's losses on its worst days (less than 1-5% of the time) will range from critical to immense. 

From both historical and forecast perspectives, the stock is underpriced compared to similar stocks. 

agilon health, inc.

$ 2.89

3

agilon health, inc.

$ 2.89

3

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

About

About

Risk factor

Profitability factor

$ 2.89

About

About

agilon health, inc.

$ 2.89

3

agilon health, inc.

$ 2.89

3

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

About

About

Risk factor

Profitability factor

$ 2.89

About

About

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