The average target price of MTCH is 34 and suggests 0% downside potential. Usually, this means a SELL recommendation among investment firms, or a recommendation to decrease one's position in this instrument in the next 12 months. The most optimistic analyst has a target price of 46.0. This translates into 34% upside potential in the best case. On the other hand, the most pessimistic analyst has a target price of 28.0. This is equivalent to 18% downside potential in the worst case. 

Match Group, Inc. provides dating products worldwide. The company's portfolio of brands includes Tinder, Match, Meetic, OkCupid, Hinge, Pairs, PlentyOfFish, and OurTime, as well as a various other brands. The company was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Dallas, Texas.

Match Group, Inc.

Communication Services

The company pays dividends irregularly. There have only been a few years with dividend payments in the past ten years. Dividend per share (DPS) has grown yearly, but the dynamics are unclear. In the past 12 months, the dividend yield has been moderate and on par with its peers. 

MTCH reported revenue of USD 3 451mn in the last 12 months, down 1% from FY24. The dynamics of cash flow, as measure by free cash flow (FCF), were rather similar. EPS grew 0% from FY24 to USD 2.13. Market expects EPS to reach USD 1.95 in FY25.

Over the last six months, the stock performance has varied, with an increase following a drop. The stock's price trend wasn't definitive when matched against its global counterparts from the same sector and industry (as depicted above). Within the past six months, its performance has trailed this peer group's by 6ppts and its growth accelerated by 11ppts in the past month. There is a distinction between the stock's performance and that of its peers from the same country and industry. Over six months it exceeded the performance of this peer group by 3ppts and accelerated its growth by 11ppts in the recent month. Given the stock's valuation versus its peers, its total price movement is neither favourable nor unfavourable.

The company has reported good EBITDA margins compared to its global peers in recent years. EBITDA margin amounted to 27.7% in the last 12 months, a decline from 30.6% in FY23. 

Historically, MTCH has reported strong net margins compared to its global peers. Specifically, in the last 12 months, this metric equalled 15.8%, down from 19.4% in FY23. 

In the last 12 months, the return on capital employed (RoCE) declined to 14.8%, above the peers. The consensus estimate for FY24 for RoCE is 23.3%, again ahead of the peers. 

Match Group, Inc. reported a return on equity (RoE) of -539.6% in the last 12 months, down from -343.4% in FY23. The market consensus projects an RoE of -3356.1% in FY24, again behind its peers. 

Another important profitability metric, return on assets (RoA), amounted to 13.0% in the last 12 months, a decrease from 15.0% in FY23. The market analysts predict that RoA will be 14.6% in FY24, again stronger than its peers. 

The ratio of return on invested capital (RoIC) to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) has been 2.0 in the past several years. This ratio implies a good shareholder value creation. 

The institutional, legal, and compliance risks associated with the company's country are minimal. In combination with stringent business standards, shareholder rights are very highly protected.

MTCH boasts very high trading liquidity. The average private investor can sell his common position in the stock immediately. Liquidity is usually very stable and remains extremely favourable on the days with the lowest activity. The trading volume mostly stays the same even under highly turbulent market conditions. 

No other major risks have been identified.

The risk of default is high. Among the negative credit factors, we point to slow historical revenue growth, negligible return on capital, excessive margin volatility, and an unfavourable capital structure. We note robust profitability, among the positive credit factors. 

In highly turbulent market conditions, MTCH is moderately volatile. In other words, the stock will fall more than the index in times of extreme market volatility or shocking company news. Standalone, the worst-day losses (less than 1% of the time) will likely be moderate. 

In normal market circumstances, MTCH is moderately volatile. Put differently, without outstanding market volatility or shocking company news, the stock's price will move slightly wider than the index. The stock's losses on its worst days (less than 1-5% of the time) will range from moderate to notable. We would also like to highlight the notable intraday volatility of the instrument. 

Based on key historical and expected multiples, the stock is fairly valued relative to its peers. In particular, the stock is reasonably priced on P/E, of fair value on EV/EBITDA, trading at neutral levels on P/FCF. 

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Match Group, Inc.

$ 34.3

4

Match Group, Inc.

$ 34.3

4

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

Risk factor

Profitability factor

$ 34.3

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