Apple will lose its lead in the global smartphone market. What does the memory chip crisis have to do with this?

Samsung Electronics will regain its leading position in the smartphone market in 2026, overtaking Apple, according to a forecast by Counterpoint Research cited by Bloomberg. The South Korean company is more resilient to rising prices for gadget components. The shortage of memory chips, which has driven up their prices, has worsened this year, and Samsung is one of the largest manufacturers of these chips.

Counterpoint Research expects global smartphone shipments to fall by 14.3% this year, with Chinese manufacturers bearing the brunt of the decline.

According to the research firm’s estimates, Samsung will increase its shipments by 0.8%, which will allow it to overtake Apple. “Samsung’s return to the top spot is driven by its in-house component manufacturing capabilities, broad portfolio of devices, and strong ties with carriers and retail chains,” noted Counterpoint’s lead analyst, Yang Wang.

Experts at Counterpoint believe that the iPhone manufacturer, like Samsung, will be able to withstand the price pressure caused by rising component costs; however, their forecasts for Apple are more cautious. New AI-powered features, as well as the foldable iPhone expected this fall, will help stimulate demand for more expensive models but are unlikely to drive a large-scale wave of device upgrades among consumers, notes Yang Wang.

According to the Counterpoint report, aside from Samsung, only China’s Huawei will demonstrate steady growth, having built up its own hardware inventory in the face of U.S. sanctions.

According to Wan, manufacturers of budget models will face a drop in shipments of up to 34%. In July, Oppo began phasing out the OnePlus brand, which, thanks to its aggressive pricing strategy, became a rare example of a Chinese brand that broke into the U.S. market, Bloomberg notes. Samsung’s competitors, such as Xiaomi, Vivo, and Honor Device, are reorganizing their product lines and developing more premium models capable of better offsetting the increased costs of key components, the agency reports.

The market will contract again next year but will begin to recover as early as 2028, according to the study. Counterpoint’s baseline scenario for the downturn is accelerating industry consolidation.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor