Gold fell below $4,000—for the first time since November. Is the precious metal's rally over?

The spot price of gold fell below $4,000 per ounce on June 24 — for the first time since last November, as the strengthening U.S. dollar and the prospect of interest rate hikes in the U.S. brought an end to a three-year bull run in the precious metals market, according to Bloomberg.

During trading, prices fell by more than 3% to $3,973 per ounce, marking a decline for the second consecutive session.

Over the past three years, the value of this safe-haven asset has grown at double-digit rates, more than doubling in value amid a massive inflow of capital from central banks, asset managers, and retail investors.

In late January, gold reached an all-time high of about $5,600 per ounce. As of today, the precious metal has lost nearly 30% of its most recent peak value.

"The main driver behind the decline in gold prices was a significant revision of interest rate expectations," wrote Eva Mantei, a commodities strategist at ING Groep NV, in a note on Wednesday.

At its most recent meeting, the Fed left interest rates unchanged; however, opinions among Fed officials regarding the future trajectory of U.S. monetary policy were divided: nine governors expect at least one rate hike by the end of the year, another nine expect rates to remain unchanged or be cut, and the new chairman, Kevin Warsh, abstained from voting altogether.

Earlier, several banks lowered their gold price forecasts. For example, Macquarie Group revised its gold price forecast downward. It lowered its estimates for the third and fourth quarters of 2026 to $4,450 and $4,300 per ounce, respectively. This still implies an increase in prices, but a smaller one: 11.8% by the end of the third quarter and 8% by the end of the fourth. Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs have also revised their forecasts, with Deutsche Bank lowering its third-quarter target by 22% and now forecasting gold at $4,300 per ounce.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor