Morning in New York: Nvidia will set the bidding vector

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

The key event of the day will be the release of Nvidia 's (NVDA) quarterly results after the close of major trading. Given the controversial reporting season in the high-tech sector, this release is expected by the market as a moment of truth. The investment community is counting on confident forecasts from the corporation's management, backed by a sharp reassessment of the hyperscalers' investment in AI infrastructure. Nvidia's optimistic statements are able to return risk appetite and bring the market out of consolidation. Nevertheless, we remind that the first reaction to the company's report in recent quarters was overly emotional, so investors should prepare for a period of increased volatility before the quotes finally determine the trend.

In the macro calendar for today, only the MBA mortgage applications data for the week to February 20 (previous value: +2.8%) are of some interest. This publication is unlikely to determine the movements on the stock markets, but the weak result will confirm the pressure of rates on the housing market.

TJX Companies (TJX), Lowe's (LOW), Circle Internet Group (CRCL), Hut 8 (HUT), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Owens Corning (OC), United Therapeutics (UTHR) will report before the open. Nvidia (NVDA), Salesforce (CRM), Snowflake (SNOW), Synopsys (SNPS), Nu Holdings (NU), IonQ (IONQ), The Trade Desk (TTD) will release their results after the main session.

The Salesforce (CRM) report will be evaluated by investors on the sustainability of the business model amid the risk of AI solutions replacing traditional software. If Salesforce's results turn out to be weak, it could lead to the entire software segment (IGV ETF) updating its lows from 2023. That said, demand to buy out the sector's drawdowns has remained very weak so far.

Futures on American stock indices are consolidating. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming trading session as neutral with moderate volatility. From the technical point of view, the S&P 500 has been squeezed in the range between the 50- and 100-day moving averages for five sessions: consolidation above the resistance at 6915 points will allow the benchmark to continue its upward movement, while a move below the support at 6820 points will indicate the prevalence of corrective sentiment.

- Axon Enterprise (AXON) stock soared more than 15% before the start of the main session. The company reported EPS of $2.15 with a consensus of $1.6 and revenue of $797 million, which also beat average expectations. The stock was further supported by the company's 2026 guidance, which calls for a 27-30% increase in revenue with the market's average forecast of 25.8%.

- Shares of Workday (WDAY) are losing about 9% in the premarket as the company's own guidance for first-quarter subscription revenue suggests a $2.34 billion figure with a consensus of $2.35 billion. In addition, non-GAAP operating margin momentum has added to concerns about rising costs and the pace of business expansion.

- Shares of First Solar (FSLR) fell by more than 10% before the opening of the main trading session, which was a reaction to logistical difficulties and increased price competition that negatively affected margins. In addition, the company's revenue guidance for next year in the range of $4.9-5.2 bln was significantly below the market consensus.

- Quotes of MercadoLibre (MELI) on the premarket are corrected within 5% amid the publication of mixed results. Revenue of $8.76 bln exceeded average expectations, but quarterly profit fell short of forecasts, besides, investors' concerns were caused by weak EPS.

- Shares of Cava Group (CAVA) were up about 9% ahead of the main session as the company managed to generate more than $1 billion in annualized revenue. In addition, management gave a strong outlook for 2026, assuming a 3-5% increase in comparable sales, which investors saw as evidence of solid demand and the effectiveness of the business model.

Trades on February 24 on American stock exchanges ended in a steady plus. S&P 500 added 0.77%, Nasdaq 100 grew by 1.09%, Dow rose by 0.76%, Russell 2000 strengthened by 1.2%.

Positive market dynamics was provided by the shares of Apple (AAPL: +2.24%) and Tesla (TSLA: +2.39%), as well as by the rebound in quotations of software and semiconductor manufacturers. AMD (AMD: +8.77%) emerged as a growth leader on news of a major contract with Meta Platforms (META: +0.32%). Shares of Nvidia (NVDA: +0.68%) remained in focus ahead of an expected strong quarterly report.

Cyclical consumer staples (XLY: +1.52%) traded better than the broad market on the back of strong reporting from Home Depot (HD: +1.99%). The healthcare sector (XLV: -0.42%) was the outsider.

Consumer Confidence Index for February amounted to 91.2 points with a consensus of 87, which confirms the stability of demand and improves the assessment of the labor market. At the same time, the index of manufacturing activity from FRB Richmond for the current month fell to -10, which was twice lower than forecasts and noticeably weaker than the January level.

Yields of treasuries were changing multidirectionally with moderate flattening of the curve, the short end of which added about 2 bps. The auction on placement of two-year treasury bonds (UST 2Y) was held with weaker demand from non-residents. The dollar index DXY rose slightly on weaker Japanese yen. The price of WTI crude oil fell by 1%. Gold corrected by 0.9%.

US foreign trade policy remains a source of uncertainty for stock exchange players. Representatives of the Fed's management noted stabilization of inflation and limited opportunities to level structural difficulties in the labor market with the help of monetary policy. Against this background, the benchmarks for further rate cuts remain restrained.

- Stripe is considering buying some or all of PayPal 's (PYPL: +6.7%) business. Investors are laying down a potential M&A premium, although according to media reports, talks are only at a preliminary stage.

- Pressure on pharma was exacerbated by the announcement that it intends to cut Ozempic and Wegovy prices by up to 50% in the US from 2027, which negatively impacted Novo Nordisk (NVO: -2.6%) and exacerbated concerns about margin sustainability in the face of mounting pricing and political pressures.

- Planet Fitness (PLNT: -9%) reported better than forecasts, but its own guidance for FY 2026 fell short of consensus. In addition, the signal of rising capital expenditures and depreciation expenses was perceived by the market as a pressure on profitability.

- Keurig Dr Pepper 's (KDP: +4.2%) revenue exceeded average expectations thanks to strong sales volume and price dynamics. At the same time, raw material cost inflation led to more pronounced margin pressure than forecast.

- The growth of interest in the financial data segment was supported by the news about the launch of Anthropic's corporate AI tools developed together with partners, including FactSet Research Systems (FDS: +5.9%). The market saw this as a de-risking of the company's business model. Nevertheless, FDS stock is still losing more than 30% since the beginning of the year.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor