Morning in New York: quotes follow the news

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

The U.S.-Iranian conflict continues to determine the dynamics on stock exchanges. At the beginning of the day, buyers were supported by the news that US President Donald Trump admits the completion of the military operation against Iran even without full restoration of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. This statement was perceived by the market as a signal of possible limitation of the conflict scale.

Against this background, oil corrected from local highs near $106-107 per barrel to levels around $102-103. This contributes to the weakening of inflation expectations and supports demand for risk assets.

At the same time, tensions in the Middle East persist. Iran has launched new missile strikes and expressed readiness for further escalation of the conflict. In turn, the U.S. is increasing pressure on the Islamic Republic, threatening to destroy its oil infrastructure, including the key export hub on Kharq Island. This maintains a high level of uncertainty and increases investors' sensitivity to the news background.

An additional negative factor is reports about Iran's plans to impose monetary charges for cargo transportation through the Strait of Hormuz and impose restrictions on US and Israeli vessels. In this regard, energy prices remain volatile, and the geopolitical premium in quotations remains.

The most important macro releases this Tuesday will be the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March (consensus: 87.9 points, previous value: 91.2) and the JOLTS job openings data for February (consensus: 6890K, previous value: 6946K). Weaker-than-forecast statistics may increase concerns about the cooling of the economy, while robust figures will support risk appetite.

Futures on US stock indices show growth within 0.8%. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming session as neutral, at the same time we expect the opening with a gap up and forecast increased intraday volatility.

- Phreesia (PHR) shares on the pre-market collapsed by more than 25% on the background of quarterly reports publication and under the influence of management's conservative forecast. The company's revenue for the last three months amounted to about $127 mln, and the guidance for the next fiscal year was revised to $510-520 mln, which was below average market expectations. An additional negative was management's comments about caution in spending by pharmaceutical clients.

- Shares of PepGen (PEPG) collapsed by about 45% before the start of main trading. The reason for the aggressive sell-off was unsatisfactory data from Phase II studies (FREEDOM2-DM1) of the drug for the treatment of myotonic dystrophy type 1.

- Progress Software (PRGS) shares are adding about 2% in the premarket on the back of the report release and FY 2026 guidance update. The company forecasts revenue in the range of $988 mln-1 bln, raising its adjusted EPS guidance to $5.91-6.03.

- Mueller Industries (MLI) stock is up about 2% after announcing a new credit agreement and the purchase of Bison Metals Technologies. The expanded financing increases the company's flexibility and supports the realization of the deal.-

- Shares of CVD Equipment (CVV) sagged more than 10% before the start of major trading. The company recorded a drop in revenue to about $5 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, with an ongoing operating loss. An additional factor was the announcement of the sale of the SDC division for $16.9 million and cost cuts, which the market perceives as a continuation of restructuring.

March 30 trading on the U.S. stock exchanges ended mixed. The main indices retreated from intraday highs amid increasing geopolitical tensions and persistent concerns about slowing economic growth. S&P 500 declined by 0.39%, NASDAQ 100 lost 0.78%, Russell 2000 fell by 1.46%, only Dow Jones added 0.11%.

Shares of the Magnificent Seven did not show a unified trend.

The financial industry (XLF: +1.15%) became the leaders of growth in the broad market thanks to banks and insurance companies. The technology sector (XLK: -1.86%) was among the outsiders amid the sell-off of semiconductor and network equipment manufacturers.

Exchange players reacted positively to reports of progress in negotiations between the US and Iran and the easing of restrictions on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. However, the above-mentioned threats to the energy infrastructure of the Islamic Republic and the general risk of expanding military confrontation contributed to high volatility and limited the demand for risk.

The Dallas Fed's manufacturing activity index for March fell 0.2 points, while it was expected to rise by 2. The employment component moved into the contraction zone, while price indicators increased. Such dynamics reflects a combination of moderate slowdown in economic activity and persistent inflationary pressures.

Additional attention of investors was attracted by the change in market expectations regarding the interest rate trajectory after the comments of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Prior to the latest speech of the regulator's head, the market had been predicting a longer continuation of tight monetary policy with a notable probability of the rate remaining in the 375-400 bps range in the second half of 2026. According to current CME FedWatch data, the baseline scenario was a 350-375bp rate level with a gradual shift in guidance towards a rate cut in 2027. This indicates a partial easing of expectations of a prolonged period of tight policy and a more balanced perception of the regulator's further steps.

- United Therapeutics (UTHR: +12.5%) reported results from the TETON-1 study in which Tyvaso met the primary endpoint for the treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. The market reaction reflects a reassessment of the commercial potential of this product if approved for the new indication.

- Alcoa (AA: +8.2%) shares reacted positively to a jump in aluminum prices following Iranian strikes on production facilities in the UAE and Bahrain.

- Speculative inflows into Fannie Mae (FNMA: +51.2%) and Freddie Mac (FMCC: +47.3%) stocks prompted comments from influential investors Bill Ackman and Michael Burry that these issuers are undervalued. At the same time, fundamental drivers for the revaluation of these mortgage agencies remain limited due to ongoing regulatory uncertainty surrounding their status.

- Sysco (SYY: -15.3%) announced the acquisition of Jetro Restaurant Depot for a total value of about $29.1 billion. Despite the strategic attractiveness of the deal and expectations of EPS growth, investors are concerned about its scale and associated integration risks. The market also negatively perceived the pause in the implementation of the buyback program.

- Alaska Air Group (ALK: -5.5%) worsened its adjusted EPS forecast for the first quarter. The results were pressured by higher fuel costs, lower demand at certain destinations, and unfavorable weather conditions.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor