Morning in New York: The S&P 500 Is Poised to Hit a New Record

A daily review and forecast of events in the U.S. stock market by Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Capital Markets Research at Freedom Broker.

The investment community’s attention remains focused on the situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Hopes for a swift conclusion of agreements between the U.S. and Iran have dimmed following statements from Tehran that it is not conducting direct negotiations with Washington. The Iranian Foreign Ministry reported that communications are taking place through intermediaries. U.S. President Donald Trump, for his part, described contacts with Iran as limited and emphasized that the U.S. continues to rely on economic pressure. Tehran’s demands for compensation and the fulfillment of a number of other conditions for opening the strait are creating additional uncertainty. Washington continues to insist that ships be allowed to pass through the strait without any control whatsoever by Iran. The Houthis continue to threaten ships linked to Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait area. All these factors are supporting the risk premium in oil prices, which may limit risk appetite. At the same time, the situation does not yet signal that the market is poised for a sharp downward reversal following last week’s successful close.

Before the start of the main trading session, Ferguson Enterprises (FERG), Barrick Mining (B), Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM), and monday.com (MNDY) will report their quarterly results. After the market closes, Rocket Lab (RKLB), AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), Hims & Hers Health (HIMS), Simon Property Group (SPG), BridgeBio Pharma (BBIO), USA Rare Earth (USAR), and Archer Aviation (ACHR) will report their results. There are no significant releases on the macroeconomic calendar.

Futures on U.S. stock indices are showing moderately positive momentum. We assess the risk balance for the upcoming session as neutral, with moderate volatility. The S&P 500 remains at a historic high and, barring another spike in oil prices, may attempt to set a new record.

— Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) reported its second-quarter results. The fund’s operating profit rose 16% year-over-year to $12.98 billion. Share buybacks increased to approximately $4.5 billion from $235 million in the previous quarter. Cash reserves declined from a record $397.4 billion to $365.5 billion. Under the leadership of new CEO Greg Abel, the company has shifted to a more aggressive buying strategy, ending a three-year period of net stock sales. New investments in stocks totaled about $20 billion. Of this amount, approximately $10 billion was invested in Alphabet (GOOGL) shares.

— Diversifying memory chip procurement directly impacts the entire supply chain. Apple (AAPL) is testing products from the Chinese company CXMT in its iPhone and MacBook lines to alleviate component shortages amid the AI boom. The shipments in question are intended for devices sold in China.

— Nvidia (NVDA) is investing up to $3 billion in energy infrastructure operator Lancium. Of this amount, $2 billion will secure a roughly 20% stake in the company, which is valued at approximately $10 billion, while $1 billion will be invested contingent on the expansion of grid-connected power capacity.

— Paramount Skydance (PSKY) has offered AMC Entertainment and Cineworld Group’s Regal Cinemas three-year agreements granting them exclusive theatrical distribution rights to new films for at least 45 days. The company guarantees the release of 30 films per year if it closes the deal with Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD). Meanwhile, premieres on streaming services will be delayed by 90 days.

— The U.S. has announced $3 billion in investments in projects for the extraction of critical minerals and the production of batteries. A $1.4 billion loan will be provided to Sila Nanotechnologies, a manufacturer of lithium-ion battery components. Sunrise Energy Metals (ASX: SRL) will receive up to $400 million, magnet developer Niron Magnetics will receive up to $150 million, and the Export-Import Bank will allocate $58 million to Westwater Resources (WWR), Global Advanced Metals, and 5E Advanced Materials (FEAM).

— A Delaware court invalidated Verisk’s (VRSK) termination of the $2.35 billion deal to acquire AccuLynx and ordered the company to reimburse the seller for its direct costs.

Trading on August 7 on U.S. stock markets closed in positive territory. The S&P 500 gained 0.62%, the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.19%, the Dow Jones rose 0.28%, and the Russell 2000 rose 1.10%. The rally accelerated toward the close, and the week as a whole ended firmly in positive territory thanks to strong corporate earnings, more stable positioning following July’s sell-off in a number of “momentum” stocks, and expectations of a less hawkish Fed policy. The largest technology companies mostly traded in positive territory.

The top performers were cyclical consumer goods suppliers (XLY: +1.49%), IT companies (XLK: +1.42%), and materials and raw materials producers (XLB: +1.32%). Energy stocks (XLE: −1.13%) lagged behind as oil prices fell amid expectations that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened.

Treasury bond prices rose, and yields on the short end of the curve fell by 4–5 basis points. WTI crude oil rose 1.2% during the day, but turned lower toward the evening following reports of a pending agreement on the Strait of Hormuz.

Reports of progress in the negotiations between Oman and Iran, as well as expectations of an imminent agreement on the U.S. lifting its blockade of Iranian ports, bolstered hopes for a de-escalation of the conflict surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and contributed to a rise in overall risk appetite.

According to the Labor Department’s July report, the number of new nonfarm jobs fell by 23,000, even though the consensus forecast had called for an increase of 80,000; and the figures for May and June were revised downward by a combined total of 103,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.1% after a 0.3% increase in June, falling short of market expectations. Against this backdrop, the probability of a rate hike in September was lowered by more than 10 percentage points—to approximately 44%.

— Twilio (TWLO: +24.9%) reported second-quarter results that beat expectations for revenue and earnings per share (EPS). Organic growth accelerated in both messaging and voice services. The third-quarter guidance came in above consensus, and the full-year guidance for 2026 was raised. Signs of market share expansion and the company’s strong competitive position provided additional support for the stock.

— Natera (NTRA: +21.4%) significantly exceeded average market expectations for second-quarter revenue and earnings. The company demonstrated strong growth in testing volumes, record performance for its Signatera oncology test, and an increase in the average selling price. The full-year revenue forecast was revised upward. Plans to launch products in the Japanese market provided additional support.

— Fluor’s (FLR: +17.2%) revenue and adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter came in above consensus thanks to a large volume of new orders. The company revised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance: the lower end of the range was raised, while the upper end was lowered due to the exclusion of a previously expected contribution from a joint venture in Mexico in the second half of the year.

— Rockstar Energy founder Russ Savage announced that he owns approximately 4.7% of Celsius Holdings (CELH: +16.8%) and called for the replacement of the company’s senior management, offering his candidacy for the position of CEO. The news has heightened expectations of potential changes in the issuer’s management.

— Onto Innovation (ONTO: +14.8%) exceeded market consensus estimates for second-quarter revenue and earnings, driven by strong demand in key end markets. Its own third-quarter guidance also came in above consensus. The company expects growth to accelerate in the areas of advanced technology standards and chip packaging. Its customers continue to invest in long-term programs aimed at expanding the use of Onto’s products.

— Microchip Technology’s (MCHP: +13.9%) results for the first quarter of its fiscal year exceeded market consensus estimates, as did its guidance. The main positive sign was a four-year high in order growth. Longer lead times improved the company’s revenue predictability. Management also noted that gross margins were supported by pricing, sales mix, and a reduction in inventory write-downs.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor