New York morning: pressure on Powell triggers selloffs

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

Participants in upcoming trades will track the escalating conflict between the White House and the Fed. Federal prosecutors have launched a criminal investigation against the head of the regulator Jerome Powell in connection with his testimony about the repair of the Fed headquarters. He himself called what was happening only a pretext for pressure from Donald Trump to lower rates and undermine the independence of the Fed. In December, Trump publicly expressed his displeasure with Powell and said he wanted to send him to resign. The news triggered a sharp increase in uncertainty that is weighing on markets. Investors fear an institutional crisis due to the attempts of the presidential administration to directly interfere in the work of the Fed.

Mass protests in Iran and the threat of U.S. intervention caused oil quotations to spike, but prices stabilized as the likelihood of a direct impact of social upheaval in the Islamic republic on exports through the Strait of Hormuz was reassessed.

No significant macroeconomic and corporate reports are scheduled for publication today.

Futures on US stock indices demonstrate negative dynamics. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming trades as negative with moderate volatility. We focus on the S&P 500 fluctuations in the range of 6900-6990 points (from -1.0% to +0.3% to the closing level of the previous session).

- The strategic partnership between Walmart (WMT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) is reaching a new level. The retailer is implementing the Gemini AI model into its online infrastructure, while Google is launching Universal Commerce Protocol, an AI-based tool designed to personalize online shopping and simplify product search. An additional growth driver for Walmart is the inclusion of AstraZeneca (AZN) in the calculation of the Nasdaq 100 index instead of AstraZeneca (AZN), as this will provide an influx of investment in the retailer's securities by funds.

- The US President proposes that international oil and gas majors invest at least $100 billion in Venezuela. However, this does not make them overly enthusiastic. Trump also announced the possibility of blocking Exxon Mobil 's (XOM) access to Venezuelan subsoil in response to the statement of the company's CEO Darren Woods about the unsuitability of the region for investment, made at a meeting in the White House.

- The consumer credit sector may be under pressure due to Donald Trump's initiative to legislatively cap credit card rates at 10% APR, but it is unlikely to be implemented.

-Boeing (BA) has made progress in regulatory procedures. The 737 MAX 10 airliner, the largest in its family, has moved to the next stage of certification. In addition, the company is on track to achieve its highest volume of airplane deliveries since 2018 and is preparing to further ramp up production.

January 9 trading on American stock exchanges ended in the plus. S&P 500 added 0.65%, having updated the historical maximum. Nasdaq 100 grew by 1.02%, Dow Jones rose by 0.48%, Russell 2000 - by 0.78%.

Shares of the "Magnificent Seven" continued to move multidirectionally. Shares of Tesla (TSLA: +2.11%) were in the highest demand from buyers. Quotes of Nvidia (NVDA: -0.1%) closed in a slight downside, despite the positive news from the CES conference.

Materials producers (XLB: +1.6%) were the leaders of growth on the back of the rally in copper and aluminum prices, as well as on the news of the merger of Rio Tinto and Glencore. The healthcare sector (XLV: -0.51%) was the outsider due to profit taking in the securities of insurers and hospital operators.

According to the report of the Ministry of Labor for December, the number of new jobs outside of agriculture (non-farm payrolls) amounted to 50 thousand with average expectations in the range of 55-60 thousand. At the same time, the data for November and October were revised downward by 76 thousand. At the same time, unemployment in the last month of 2025 fell to 4.4% in the consensus 4.5%, which, combined with wage growth of 0.3% m/m was seen as evidence of the stability of the labor market without overheating.

The Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan came out in line with forecasts, recording inflation expectations at 4.2%.

Quotes of construction companies and mortgage agencies rose after Donald Trump instructed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds. Against this backdrop, investors ignored the absence of a Supreme Court decision on IEEPA tariffs, which is now not expected until January 14.

Gold prices rose above $4500 per ounce (+0.9%), silver rose by 5.6%. WTI crude oil rose by 2.4% amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

- Conclusion of long-term agreements (PPA) for supply of more than 2,600 MW of green energy for Meta data centers (META: +1.08%) became the driver of double-digit growth of Vistra (VST: +10.5%). An agreement with the same Meta to support the construction of a 1.2 GW energy campus in Ohio pushed up Oklo (OKLO: +7.9%) shares, confirming the trend for bigtechs to cooperate with nuclear energy suppliers.

- Intel (INTC: +10.8%) was supported after Donald Trump's statements about confidence in the company's success and the importance of revitalizing American chip manufacturing, which investors interpreted as a signal of continued government stimulus measures.

- Donald Trump's call for the government mortgage agencies to buy $200 billion in bonds to lower rates drove shares of Rocket Companies (RKT: +9.7%), whose business is directly dependent on activity in the housing market, higher.

-Insmed (INSM: +3.4%) gave a strong revenue outlook for 2025, beating Wall Street expectations by 17% on the back of successful sales of Arikayce and the drug Brinsupri.

- Expanded access to an oral version of Wegovy through the Amazon Pharmacy platform supported Novo Nordisk (NVO: +2.6%) quotes. Policyholders will be able to purchase the drug at prices starting at $25 per month, with cash payments starting at $149.

- The announcement of nearly $7 billion in fourth-quarter write-downs related to the winding down of a number of electric vehicle programs and restructuring of the business in China pressured General Motors (GM: -2.7%) securities.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor