Optimus and Robotaxis: What Does Wall Street Expect from Tesla's Report?

Tesla will release its second-quarter earnings report after the market closes on July 22, and Wall Street analysts have several pressing questions about Elon Musk’s plans for the electric-vehicle manufacturer, according to Business Insider.

Although Tesla's deliveries have recently begun to recover, the company's stock has yet to reflect investors' renewed optimism. Since the start of the year, the stock has fallen 15%, making it one of the weakest performers among the “Magnificent Seven.”

Investors and analysts expect that the second-quarter financial results will shed light on Elon Musk’s strategy for restoring market confidence in the second half of the year. Robotaxis and Optimus humanoid robots remain the main drivers of a positive scenario. Optimistic analysts are increasingly viewing them as more important drivers of future revenue growth than electric vehicle sales, notes Business Insider.

In addition, this is the company's first earnings report since SpaceX went public in June, so investors will likely be looking for answers regarding a possible merger between SpaceX and Tesla.

Here's what analysts say they're focusing on ahead of Tesla's earnings release.

BofA maintains its "buy" rating on Tesla shares and keeps its price target at $391, which is about 2% above the closing price on July 21. The bank’s analysts believe that investors will focus on the initial results of the robotaxi launch and the production of humanoid robots.

“We believe the financial report will focus primarily on the robotaxi segment. Tesla has entered a new market and is expanding its fleet. In our view, the company’s core automotive business remains stable, and second-quarter delivery figures will exceed Wall Street expectations thanks to its growing share of the global electric vehicle market,” BofA noted.

Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Perko has lowered his price target for Tesla shares from $417 to $415, while maintaining his “Hold” recommendation (Equal Weight rating). The new price target implies a 9% upside from current levels. Although he expects progress in several key areas, he believes the earnings report is unlikely to offer a fundamentally new narrative capable of triggering another round of stock gains.

“Strong shipment figures for vehicles and battery systems are bolstering the company’s fundamentals in the short term, but we still believe that robotaxis and Optimus will remain the main drivers for the stock,” Perko noted. The Morgan Stanley analyst expects to hear positive updates on both fronts in the earnings report, although he believes they are unlikely to be enough to trigger a significant revaluation of the company.

Analysts at Oppenheimer note that Tesla’s transformation into a leader in the field of “physical AI” (referring to robotaxis and Optimus robots) will require significant capital expenditures to acquire the necessary computing power and memory capacity.

"We expect investors to start viewing capital investments as a leading indicator of success in the field of physical AI," they wrote.

Analysts have raised their forecast for Tesla’s capital expenditures this year from $18 billion to $20 billion. According to their estimates, the company intends to “aggressively bring capacity online to support AI-driven learning cycles in product design, manufacturing processes, and software integration into products.”

Oppenheimer assigned Tesla shares a "Hold" recommendation (Perform rating) with no price target over a 12–18-month horizon.

Barclays is less optimistic about Tesla shares than some of its Wall Street counterparts. The investment bank’s analysts maintained their price target at $370 and their “Hold” recommendation (Equal Weight rating). This target implies a 2.4% decline in the company’s stock price relative to the last closing price. Although the investment bank’s analysts noted an improvement in the company’s automotive business, they questioned how significant this will actually be going forward.

“We believe that the main signal from the market regarding Tesla’s high valuation multiple is that the company’s current revenue stream (primarily from vehicles) is becoming less and less significant, and the focus on the stock is shifting toward future mega-initiatives in the field of AI—robo-taxis, autonomous driving, and Optimus humanoid robots,” Barclays wrote.

Cantor Fitzgerald remains among the most optimistic bulls ahead of Tesla's earnings release. The investment firm maintained its “Hold” recommendation (Equal Weight rating) and kept its price target for Tesla shares at $510, which is 34% above current levels. Analyst Andrés Sheppard noted that Tesla’s vehicle deliveries exceeded expectations and that the test launch of robotaxis in Texas in June was successful. He added that his team expects this progress to continue.

“Overall, we continue to view the robotaxi segment and Tesla’s Cybercab project as a high-margin ‘software-as-a-service’ (SaaS) model. “We expect Tesla to be able to scale rapidly after commercialization, despite the delay in expanding [production capacity], and to capture a significant market share,” he noted.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor