Strait of Hormuz to open in June, JPMorgan says: oil stocks running out

Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, crucial for Persian Gulf oil supplies, could resume as early as June as the risk of oil depletion increases pressure on U.S. management, JPMorgan said. Fitch predicted a slightly longer-term outlook - but it too expects the strait to open as early as summer. And Moody's warned that US President Donald Trump has a week left before "real problems" begin.

"The key assumption underlying this forecast is that the accelerating rate of oil inventory drawdown will eventually cause the Strait of Hormuz to open one way or another, and our team predicts this will happen in June," JPMorgan analysts wrote in a June 3 note cited by CNBC.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of the world's oil exports passed before the U.S.-Iran war, has remained partially blocked for about four months. As the conflict has progressed, Tehran has increased its control over the artery, including placing sea mines. Iran has mined "significant sections" of the Strait of Hormuz, indicating more extensive restrictions on shipping than previously thought, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said June 2.

Oil reserves in the United States have fallen to their lowest level in two decades: last week their volumes fell by 10.6 million - to 1.57 billion barrels, the Financial Times wrote with reference to government data. Reserves have not been this low since 2004, the newspaper said.

The most likely scenario remains the opening of the Strait of Hormuz by July, as economic pressure on the conflict participants will increase, Angelina Valavina, head of natural resources research in the Middle East at Fitch Ratings, told Bloomberg. In her opinion, the situation will be influenced by several key factors.

The first is the start of the U.S. road travel season, when gasoline demand traditionally rises along with fuel consumption. The second is the publication of inflation and GDP data for the second quarter of 2026, which will be released in July-August and which may reflect the effects of disruptions in the oil market. In addition, Valavina mentioned the US midterm elections, as well as China. According to the analyst's estimate, Beijing has strategic oil reserves of about 1.2 billion barrels, which will be enough for the country until about October.

The combination of these factors will increase economic pressure on the main parties to the conflict and the largest oil consumers, making the restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by July the most likely scenario, Valavina said.

The U.S. needs to reach an agreement with Iran literally within a week to avoid more serious consequences for the economy, Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi said June 1. He said further increases in oil prices could push the cost of gasoline above $5 a gallon and increase the risk of recession.

Brent oil rose in price by 2% at the auction on June 3: the price rose above $98 per barrel. American oil WTI grew by 2.7% - to about $96.3 per barrel.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor