The war in the Middle East, which has deprived the world of about 20% of the global supply of oil and liquefied natural gas, is changing expectations about global inflation, economic growth and the outlook for monetary policy. An average oil price of $150 or even $200 a barrel no longer seems impossible to analysts, and such a rise could reignite inflation.

'An incredible shift': where two weeks of war in Iran has taken the world economy

The war in the Middle East triggered a reversal in several strategies that were particularly popular with international investors. After the war began, Asian equity funds experienced the largest outflow of funds in four years, while the stagnant U.S. stock market attracted increased interest. The game against the dollar also unfolded: the U.S. currency regained its safe haven status. How long will this reversal last?

Investors have changed their strategy: they are leaving Asian markets and investing in US assets 

Apple Inc.

Microsoft Corporation

Meta Platforms, Inc.

Amazon.com, Inc.

Alphabet Inc.

Throughout February, investors have been rushing from extreme to extreme over fears about artificial intelligence. Against this backdrop, are there any companies that have not yet been affected by traders' nervousness? Yes, one of them is Apple. Strangely enough, it is now benefiting from the fact that it lagged behind the leaders in AI development and was not too connected with the probable consequences of its implementation.

Apple was able to turn around a lag in the AI race: its stock avoided a massive sell-off

The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling that most of the import duties imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump are <a href="https://oninvest.com/article/verhovnyj-sud-ssa-otmenil-global-nye-posliny-prezidenta-trampa-rynki-rastut">illegal</a> and his response - imposing an additional global levy of 15% - is playing into the hands of emerging markets. They have been on the periphery of international investors' attention for many years, but now their indices are strongly outperforming developed markets.

Emerging market indices outperformed developed markets. Asia and Latin America attract investors 

Salesforce, Inc.

ServiceNow, Inc.

SAP SE

Dassault Systemes SE

Tata Consultancy Services Limited

Infosys Limited

Experian plc

London Stock Exchange Group plc

Blackstone Inc.

KKR & Co. Inc.

Blue Owl Capital Inc.

The Charles Schwab Corporation

Raymond James Financial, Inc.

CBRE Group, Inc.

Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated

In February, one market crash after another occurred in several sectors whose business model threatens to be undermined by AI, from software makers to wealth managers. "It's certainly a case of shoot first and ask questions later," Kerry Craig, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-02-11/jpmorgan-s-craig-on-trading-opportunities-in-ai-selloff-video">told</a> Bloomberg TV. Are the market's fears fair?

In February, stocks collapsed in several sectors at once. Investors traded "on fears of AI"

Gold in the morning of February 9 cost a little above $5 thousand, silver - $81.5. The two metals were able to recoup some of their losses after the historic collapse in late January - early February. One of its reasons was the mass arrival of retail investors to the market with the rapid growth of prices. And the bull market, according to John Templeton, one of the greatest investors of the twentieth century, "dies in euphoria". How will events in the metals market develop further?

How retail investors crashed gold and silver prices 

The Japanese market has played a crucial role in international investment for decades as a source of ultra-cheap loans. But the situation is changing. Interest rates in Japan are rising, long-term bond yields are approaching the level of other developed countries, and the country's authorities are trying to support the yen. All of this could lead to a large-scale outflow of funds from global markets.

A supplier of shocks: why Japan's market problems threaten investors around the world 

Donald Trump's policies and behavior make investors seriously consider withdrawing some funds from the United States. Although the power and scale of the economy and the U.S. financial market will attract them, the process of dedollarization and diversification to the detriment of U.S. assets will continue. Most likely, this will be done in a non-public manner.

Quietly exit the US market: how investors are seeking protection from Trump's policies 

Over the past two years, average monthly trading volumes on the prediction market, where Polymarket and Kalshi platforms are the leaders, have grown 80 times. Wall Street companies have begun hiring traders to work with prediction markets. Critics of the booming sector say it's an easy opportunity for holders of nonpublic information to make money from insider trading. Defenders insist that such platforms fulfill the main function of the market - to allow a fair assessment of a particular event.

Michael Overchenko

Writes about:

Articles: 41

'An incredible shift': where two weeks of war in Iran has taken the world economy

Strategy Breakdown: How the war in the Middle East has changed the flow of capital

Loser wins: how Apple was able to turn the backlash in the AI race to its advantage

Emerging markets are investors' favorites this year. Trump is contributing to that

Investors have taken to trading "on fears of AI". Are these fears justified?

The end of 'euphoria': How retail investors in silver and gold have trapped themselves

A supplier of shocks: why Japan's market problems threaten investors around the world

Quietly exit the US market: how investors are seeking protection from Trump's policies

"The New Beast": how Wall Street is adapting to the booming prediction market