The average target price of ASTS is 40 and suggests 12% downside potential. Usually, this means a SELL recommendation among investment firms, or a recommendation to decrease one's position in this instrument in the next 12 months. The most optimistic analyst has a target price of 64.0. This translates into 40% upside potential in the best case. On the other hand, the most pessimistic analyst has a target price of 30.0. This is equivalent to 34% downside potential in the worst case. 

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. operates space-based cellular broadband network for mobile phones. Its SpaceMobile service provides mobile broadband services for users traveling in and out of areas without terrestrial mobile services on land, at sea, or in flight. The company is headquartered in Midland, Texas.

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.

Technology

The company does not pay dividends at all, or it pays them sporadically. There have only been a few years with dividend payments in the past ten years. 

ASTS reported revenue of USD 5mn in the last 12 months, up 5% from FY24. The dynamics of cash flow, as measure by free cash flow (FCF), were rather similar. EPS grew 2% from FY24 to USD -1.99. Market expects EPS to reach USD -1.76 in FY25.

Over the last six months, the stock performance has varied, with an increase following a drop. The stock's price trend wasn't definitive when matched against its global counterparts from the same sector and industry (as depicted above). Over the past six months the stock has exceeded the performance of this peer group by 87ppts and its growth accelerated by 20ppts in the past month. This is equally valid for peers from the same country and industry. Given the stock's valuation versus its peers, its total price movement is mildly favourable.

The company has reported very poor EBITDA margins compared to its global peers in recent years. EBITDA margin amounted to -8743.4% in the last 12 months, up from -10026.7% in FY23. 

Historically, ASTS has reported very poor net margins compared to its global peers. Specifically, in the last 12 months, this metric equalled -7033.2%, down from -6792.3% in FY23. 

Another important profitability metric, return on assets (RoA), amounted to -37.7% in the last 12 months, an increase from -75.1% in FY23. The market analysts predict that RoA will be -176.9% in FY24, again weaker than its peers. 

In the last 12 months, the return on capital employed (RoCE) grew to -40.8%, below the peers. The consensus estimate for FY24 for RoCE is -342.3%, again behind the peers. 

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. reported a return on equity (RoE) of -75.3% in the last 12 months, up from -258.1% in FY23. The market consensus projects an RoE of -645.0% in FY24, again behind its peers. 

The ratio of return on invested capital (RoIC) to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) has been -6.8 in the past several years. This ratio implies a fragile shareholder value creation. 

The institutional, legal, and compliance risks associated with the company's country are minimal. In combination with stringent business standards, shareholder rights are very highly protected.

ASTS has above average trading liquidity. The average private investor can sell his common position in the stock immediately. Liquidity is usually stable and is unfavourable on the days with the lowest activity. The trading volume mostly stays the same even under highly turbulent market conditions. 

No other major risks have been identified.

The risk of default is high. Among the negative credit factors, we point to slow historical revenue growth, bleak profitability, negligible return on capital, poor working capital management, and inadequate interest coverage. We note low margin volatility, among the positive credit factors. 

In highly turbulent market conditions, ASTS is exceptionally volatile. In other words, the stock will be among the worst-performers in times of extreme market volatility or shocking company news. Standalone, the worst-day losses (less than 1% of the time) will likely be critical. 

In normal market circumstances, ASTS is exceptionally volatile. Put differently, without outstanding market volatility or shocking company news, the stock's price will change quite unpredictably. The stock's losses on its worst days (less than 1-5% of the time) will range from critical to immense. 

From both historical and forecast perspectives, the stock is considerably overpriced compared to similar stocks. 

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.

$ 42.5

2

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.

$ 42.5

2

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

About

About

Risk factor

Profitability factor

$ 42.5

About

About

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.

$ 42.5

2

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.

$ 42.5

2

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

About

About

Risk factor

Profitability factor

$ 42.5

About

About

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