Morning in New York: risk appetite returns

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Capital Markets Research, Freedom Broker.

The situation in the Middle East remains in the center of attention of the investment community. U.S. President Donald Trump said that the deal to resolve the conflict with Iran is actually agreed and can be signed in the "coming days", it is possible that this weekend. According to the head of the White House, the agreement provides for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz for merchant ships. If this goal is achieved, tension in the energy market will decrease and interest in risky assets will increase. At the same time, Iranian media deny the fact of final agreement of the document, so the risk of contradictory news and increased volatility remains.

The main macro release this Friday is the preliminary estimate of the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan for June (consensus: 46.6 points, Ma: 44.8). It is important for investors to understand whether reduced geopolitical tensions and stabilizing financial markets are leading to improved consumer sentiment and lower inflation expectations. According to the latest data, they unexpectedly increased from 3.4% to 3.9% on a five-year horizon.

An additional driver will be the expected debut of SpaceX on NASDAQ under the ticker SPCX. The company is raising $75 billion at a valuation of about $1.8 trillion, making it the largest offering in history. The high demand for the deal confirms investors' continued interest in AI, space and defense. The cryptocurrency platform Hyperliquid, where SPCX "perpetual" futures are traded, is showing an active deal flow with the company's valuation already reaching $2.3 trillion (about $180 per share). However, for market sentiment, the opening of trading in SpaceX shares on NASDAQ, expected in the second half of today's trading session, will be crucial. If their quotations soar, Elon Musk may become the first trillionaire.

Futures on S&P 500 demonstrate moderate growth. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming trades as positive with increased volatility. Expectations related to the end of the conflict between the US and Iran, lower oil prices and huge interest in the SpaceX IPO support risk appetite, but uncertainty about the prospects of an agreement with Tehran creates the possibility of sharp intraday movements.

- Adobe (ADBE) shares are down about 4%, although its reporting was better than expected and its FY 2026 revenue guideline was raised to $26.5-26.6 billion. Investors were alerted by relatively conservative ARR growth guidance for the second half of the year, a shift to a more aggressive freemium model in Acrobat, Express, and Firefly, and news of the CFO's departure and the ongoing search for a new CEO.

- The space sector is in the spotlight amid SpaceX's record-breaking IPO. Against this backdrop, Rocket Lab (RKLB) is up about 7%, AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) and Virgin Galactic (SPCE) are up about 5% each, and Intuitive Machines (LUNR) and Planet Labs (PL) are up about 3%. Investors are betting that SpaceX's successful debut will increase interest in public companies related to space infrastructure, satellite communications and commercial launches.

- Effective June 22, Astera Labs (ALAB), CoreWeave (CRWV), Nebius (NBIS), Rocket Lab (RKLB) and Teradyne (TER) will join the NASDAQ 100. These securities will replace Charter Communications (CHTR), Cognizant (CTSH), Insmed (INSM), Verisk Analytics (VRSK) and Zscaler (ZS) in the index.

- Shares of Lennar (LEN) are losing about 2% amid mixed reports. The company's revenue fell 5.2% YoY to $7.62 billion, underperforming consensus. The 2026 forecast for bringing homes to market was revised to 82,000-83,000 units from 85,000. Management cited pressure from high mortgage rates, housing affordability issues and consumer caution.

June 11 trading on U.S. stock exchanges ended in a steady plus. Dow Jones added 1.86%, S&P 500 rose by 1.75%, NASDAQ grew by 3.29%, Russell 2000 - by 3.02%. For the S&P 500, the session was the best since April 8. The technology sector recovered after the recent correction. The main positive driver was expectations of a diplomatic settlement of the conflict with Iran.

Among the representatives of the "Magnificent Seven" the dynamics was predominantly positive, the exception was Microsoft (MSFT: -1.77% at the close of trading on June 11). IT companies (XLK: +3.73%) and raw materials sector (XLB: +3.27%) were the leaders of growth. Energy companies (XLE: -1.94%) were outsiders due to another drop in oil prices.

US President Donald Trump's statements on canceling new bombardments of Iranian infrastructure and reports of progress in negotiations reduced demand for defensive assets, supported equities and led to an intraday drop in WTI by more than 5%. At the same time, optimism looked cautious: the naval blockade will remain in place until an agreement is signed, while Israel's position and the development of operations in Lebanon remain a source of uncertainty.

Macroeconomic statistics were mixed. General Producer Price Index (PPI) for Ma rose by 1.1% mom, exceeding the consensus of 0.7%, but core PPI rose by only 0.4% vs. expectations of 0.5%, easing concerns about sustained inflationary pressures. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the week to June 6 increased to the highest since late January 229 thousand with a consensus of 216 thousand, the number of repeated applications amounted to 1.795 million. The yields of treasuries decreased by 8-10 bp, as the market reduced expectations of tightening the Fed policy, the dynamics of oil also served as a significant factor.

- Viasat (VSAT: +18.2% at the close of trading on June 11) has been selected by the U.S. Space Force to deliver a dual-band satellite system under the PTS-G Swarm 1 program. The news strengthens the company's position in the defense satellite communications segment.

- InterDigital (IDCC: +9%) signed a patent license agreement with Amazon (AMZN: +1.47%) covering services and devices including Prime Video. The companies also agreed to settle all pending litigation.

- Eaton (ETN: +4.8%) intends to spin off Mobility Group and merge it with Dana (DAN: -15.1%). Eaton shareholders will receive 50.1% of the combined company, while the parent will receive about $1.1 billion in cash proceeds.

- Alibaba (BABA: -1.4%) has received complaints from Chinese regulators over its promotions and discount campaigns of major online platforms including Alibaba, JD.com, PDD and ByteDance.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor