Fears of stagflation amid war with Iran have led to a sharp decline in the global debt market: in March, the value of bonds fell by more than $2.5 trillion. For the bond market, this could be the largest monthly decline in more than three years, Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-23/bonds-lose-2-5-trillion-in-iran-war-wipeout-that-mirrors-2022">writes.</a>

Bond market lost $2.5 trillion due to war with Iran. This is a repeat of the 2022 collapse

U.S. Treasury bonds have fallen in price and traders have stopped pledging the likelihood of a U.S. interest rate cut this year. Such sentiment in the bond market Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-19/bond-traders-no-longer-price-in-any-chance-of-fed-cut-in-2026">recorded</a> after the Bank of England fueled concerns that global central banks may soon have to act to rein in inflation. Meanwhile, some bond market participants are already hedging against a possible rate hike in the coming months, the agency said.

The market is no longer mortgaging the likelihood of a Fed rate cut this year

The US Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates unless it sees progress on inflation this year, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said. However, he himself expects a slowdown in inflation to become noticeable by the middle of the year as the effect of duties diminishes. U.S. stocks accelerated their decline on the back of Powell's press conference - after an unexpectedly high rise in wholesale prices and the Fed's decision to leave the rate unchanged.

Powell ruled out a rate cut without progress on inflation. Stocks accelerated their decline

In February, the wholesale cost of goods and services in the U.S. - the segment where rising inflation usually shows up earliest - rose much more strongly than expected, CNBC <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/ppi-inflation-february-2026.html">writes</a>.

US wholesale inflation in February significantly exceeded expectations

The war in the Middle East, which has deprived the world of about 20% of the global supply of oil and liquefied natural gas, is changing expectations about global inflation, economic growth and the outlook for monetary policy. An average oil price of $150 or even $200 a barrel no longer seems impossible to analysts, and such a rise could reignite inflation.

'An incredible shift': where two weeks of war in Iran has taken the world economy

Major U.S. stock indexes rose in early trading on March 13 - data on U.S. GDP for the last quarter of 2025, as well as indicators of the index of personal consumption expenditures in the States for January indicated a slowdown in the economy, than strengthened hopes for lower interest rates of the Federal Reserve, Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-13/us-stocks-rise-as-tepid-economic-data-boosts-rate-cut-hopes">writes.</a>

U.S. stocks rise amid sluggish economic data. Why.

The core index of personal consumption expenditures in the United States rose at an annualized rate of 3.1% in January. The conflict in the Middle East may push it even higher, according to an analyst at Carson Group

The Fed's favorite measure of inflation rose at the fastest pace in nearly two years

Adobe Inc.

Ulta Beauty, Inc.

SentinelOne, Inc.

PagerDuty, Inc.

ServiceTitan, Inc.

Morgan Stanley

Dollar General Corporation

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

Firefly Aerospace Inc.

The Descartes Systems Group Inc.

Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

Morning in New York: inflation statistics will set the vector for trading

GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.

HighPeak Energy, Inc.

Netskope, Inc.

UiPath, Inc.

Bumble Inc.

Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc.

Oracle Corporation

Papa John's International, Inc.

Nebius Group N.V.

NVIDIA Corporation

UniFirst Corporation

Cintas Corporation

Sprinklr, Inc.

The Campbell's Company

Morning in New York: foreign and trade policies form a negative background

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which reflects the dynamics of the cost of goods and services in the U.S. economy, <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">rose</a> by 0.3% in February in monthly terms and by 2.4% in annual terms. This was fully in line with the expectations of economists surveyed by Dow Jones, CNBC <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/10/new-inflation-data-is-set-for-release-wednesday-how-to-trade-it.html?&amp;qsearchterm=CPI">reports</a>. In January, annualized CPI growth <a href="https://oninvest.com/article/inflacia-v-ssa-zamedlilas-do-2-4-i-okazalas-nize-ozidanij-cto-budet-so-stavkoj">was</a> 2.4%; last December, it was 2.7%. The previous peak value of the index was recorded in September 2025, when its growth exceeded 3%.

US inflation stabilized before the Iranian crisis. What will happen to the rate?

AeroVironment, Inc.

UWM Holdings Corporation

The Boeing Company

Morning in New York: seeking balance between macro data and geopolitics

Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft

The week began with a sharp jump in oil prices and a collapse on Asian stock exchanges - the conflict between the U.S. and Iran is dragging on, and investors are increasingly concerned about the destabilization of the global economy. Market attention will continue to be focused on events in the Middle East, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/week-ahead-for-fx-bonds-middle-east-developments-oil-prices-in-focus-u-s-inflation-due-8143012a?mod=Searchresults&amp;pos=1&amp;page=1#:~:text=View%20more-,All%20eyes%20will%20be%20on%20developments%20in%20the%20Middle%20East,-after%20the%20U">writes</a> The Wall Street Journal.

Iran war, US inflation, Oracle report: what investors need to know this week

Inflation