The TACO trade concept has proven effective during trade wars, but may not work when transferred to geopolitics

Betting on TACO: can Trump's "concessions" be capitalized on?

US President Donald Trump <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-09/trump-vows-troops-to-stay-with-iran-talks-set-amid-fragile-truce">has promised to</a> keep US troops in the Persian Gulf ahead of talks with Iran. The day before, both sides accused each other of violating the terms of the ceasefire, after which Iran again reported the suspension of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets, Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-09/trump-vows-troops-to-stay-with-iran-talks-set-amid-fragile-truce">points out</a>, reflected this uncertainty: oil prices began to rise again, while stocks in Europe and Asia fell.

Stocks fall, oil at $98: Trump promises to keep U.S. troops in the Middle East

Switzerland's largest bank sees investment opportunities in U.S. utility stocks, bonds and gold

Protective assets instead of euphoria: UBS names 5 risks after Middle East truce

The Walt Disney Company

US President Donald Trump has ramped up pressure on NATO and revisited the Greenland issue amid disagreements with allies over war with Iran, while highlighting the fragility of a truce in the Middle East. OpenAI is gearing up for an IPO with retail investors and a massive infrastructure investment. On these and other topics - in our review of key events for the morning of April 9.

Top story for this morning: Trump pressures NATO, Anthropic denied lifting Pentagon sanctions

Physical North Sea crude oil prices have risen sharply, suggesting a continued supply shortage in the market, Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-08/key-oil-prices-soar-showing-supply-is-tight-despite-iran-war-ceasefire?embedded-checkout=true">notes</a>. Despite a U.S.-Iran truce to restore traffic in the key Strait of Hormuz for global trade and already causing the value of oil futures to collapse, real oil supplies remain expensive and are selling at a large premium to core prices, the agency said.

North Sea oil price premiums jump despite US-Iran truce

U.S. stocks rose sharply at the end of trading on April 8, the first session since the truce between the U.S. and Iran. Although by the end of the trading day the rally slowed down - amid Tehran's statements about ceasefire violations by the U.S. military, the Dow Jones showed the best growth since April 2025, CNBC <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/07/stock-market-today-live-updates.html">calculated</a>. Other indices also remained in significant plus.

Dow Jones posted best growth in a year: results of the first day of the truce between the US and Iran

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf on Wednesday <a href="https://x.com/mb_ghalibaf?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2041943537386958858%7Ctwgr%5Eac820f09da0c076df28ea52805ae974e1d01340f%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2Flive-blog%2F2026-04-07%2Firan-war-latest">accused the</a> US of violating a two-week ceasefire agreement. The truce <a href="https://oninvest.com/article/mnogie-punkty-uze-soglasovany-tramp-obsuzdaet-s-iranom-smagcenie-sankcij-i-uran">was announced by</a> US President Donald Trump less than 24 hours ago.

Iran has accused the US of violating the ceasefire. What about stocks?

Emaar Properties PJSC

The Dubai Stock Market (DFM) index <a href="https://www.dfm.ae/">jumped</a> 8.5% at the open on Wednesday on news of a truce between the US and Iran. The UAE has suffered the heaviest bombardment from Tehran during the war in the Middle East - even Iran has fired fewer missiles and drones at Israel. Movchan's Group senior partner Elena Chirkova <a href="https://www.facebook.com/e.v.chirkova/posts/%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%82-%D1%87%D1%82%D0%BE-%D1%8F-%D1%85%D0%BE%D1%87%D1%83-%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BC-%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B6%D0%B8%D1%82%D1%8C-%D1%83-%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%81-%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C-%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%B8%D0%B8-%D0%B2-%D1%84%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B4%D1%8B-%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B1%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%B0%D1%8E%D1%89%D0%B8%D0%B5-%D0%BD%D0%B0-%D0%B1%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%B6%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%BC-/26298738293116773/">publishes a</a> version of why on her Facebook page.

Why has Dubai become Iran's top target? Here's what investors in the Middle East think

The cost of <b>Brent</b> crude oil <a href="https://www.ice.com/products/219/Brent-Crude-Futures/data?marketId=6018433">rose</a> back above $95 per barrel, although it fell below $91 during trading. At the same time, Brent still remains about 13% cheaper than it was at the close of trading a day earlier. US <b>WTI</b> crude oil cheapened by 16% to $95.4 per barrel.

Brent back above $95: Iran halts tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz - mass media

The VIX Volatility Index, also known as the "Wall Street Fear Index," fell below 20 points for the first time since the U.S. war against Iran began. That's a level that, according to <a href="https://www.investing.com/academy/trading/vix-index-definition/#:~:text=How%20To%20Read%20The%20VIX%20Index:%20What%20Do%20the%20Numbers%20Mean?,-Copied&amp;text=The%20VIX%20index%20typically%20ranges,coincided%20with%20significant%20market%20events">Investing.com</a> grading, indicates "relative calm or complacency in the market."

"Fear Index" signaled détente on Wall Street for the first time since the war began

The Boeing Company

Airbus SE

Despite the collapse after the US and Iran reached a temporary ceasefire agreement, Brent has gained more than 25% since the start of the war in the Middle East.

Incentive to buy airplanes: who in the airline industry will benefit from war-raised oil prices?

Dubai's benchmark stock index Dubai Financial Market General Index rose by 8.5% at its April 8 high, demonstrating the largest intraday growth since December 2014, Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-08/dubai-stocks-soar-most-in-a-decade-on-iran-war-ceasefire-relief">noted</a>. Such dynamics it showed on the background of active purchases by investors of shares of local developers and banks after the U.S. and Iran <a href="https://oninvest.com/article/ssa-i-iran-soglasilis-na-dvuhnedel-noe-peremirie-cena-nefti-wti-ruhnula-na-16">agreed</a> on a two-week truce in the war in the Middle East, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-08/dubai-stocks-soar-most-in-a-decade-on-iran-war-ceasefire-relief">writes</a> Bloomberg.