30% loss on intermediaries: should you invest in Anthropic before IPO?
Anthropic has agreed terms of a deal to raise $30bn at a $900bn valuation - FT sources / Photo: Robert Way / Shutterstock.com
AI enthusiast and venture capitalist Nick Davidov is quite skeptical about investing in Anthropic before the IPO. On his LinkedIn page, he writes that if you invest $100,000 in Anthropic through a three-tier SPV structure (special purpose vehicle - Oninvest note) at a company valuation of $380 billion, more than 30% will be eaten up by commissions.
Better invest in Google and Amazon
If you decide to invest $100,000 in Anthropic before the IPO, the company will actually reach $68,500, according to Nick Davidov, founder of Davidovs Venture Collective. Before going public, you can invest through an SPV - that is, a specially created company that will then invest in Anthropic. There can be several such SPVs, Davidov assumed that there will be three levels of intermediaries, and each can keep its own commission.
If Anthropic goes public with a $1.4 trillion valuation, the $68,850 invested in the company will grow to about $192,000. However, intermediaries will then take some of the profits, Nick Davidov estimated.
"So in one year you made $50,000 on a $100,000 investment. At a very high risk."
Davydov believes that it is more profitable and without the risk of being cheated by middlemen to invest in Google and Amazon, which have stakes in Anthropic - 14% and 18% respectively.
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"While the 32% lost on SPV commissions simply funded the cocaine habit of some college roommate of some manager in Miami [...] If the same $100,000 had been invested in AMZN and GOOG over the same period, you would have gotten a return of about 30%"
Context
In late April, the value of startup Anthropic hit $1 trillion on the OTC market. Investors are buying up securities from early shareholders and current or former employees. One of the investors in Anthropic, Bradley Horowitz, general partner at Wisdom Ventures, told Business Insider that they get offers like this every day, ranging from ridiculous to exorbitant.
"I hardly ever open those emails because we're not interested. We play the long game."
The rush demand for Anthropic securities is caused by the rapid growth of revenues. As the Financial Times has calculated, Anthropic's annual revenue, based on recent weeks, may soon exceed $45 bln compared to $9 bln at the end of last year.
This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor
