"A Key Source of Value and Risk": Wall Street's Top Tech Optimist Assesses SpaceX

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives began covering SpaceX stock and immediately recommended buying it (Buy rating), according to Barron’s. Ives set a price target of $190 per share: this implies a nearly 12% increase from the June 30 closing price and values the entire company at $2.5 trillion. For comparison, its market capitalization during trading was about $2.1 trillion.

SpaceX shares fell more than 6% during trading on July 1—to around $160.

“We view SpaceX as one of the most unique assets in the technology market, with a strong presence in three key segments: Starlink [satellites] are driving success in the communications sector, [Starship] rockets are driving demand, and the flow of deals for [Colossus] data centers is also growing,” the expert noted.

According to Ives, SpaceX’s space launch segment is worth approximately $66 billion. Starlink, the satellite internet service that already has more than 10 million subscribers and generates billions of dollars in annual revenue, is valued at approximately $600 billion. However, the largest portion of the company’s value comes from its AI division—about $1.8 trillion. The analyst expects that by 2028, SpaceX’s revenue from AI will exceed $80 billion—and that’s even before the company launches its AI data centers into orbit, which it plans to do.

At the same time, Ives emphasizes that all of SpaceX’s future successes—including its ambitions in the field of artificial intelligence—depend directly on the Starship project. The new rocket is designed to reduce the cost of delivering cargo to space by 90% compared to the Falcon 9. Such a significant reduction in cost will open up opportunities for a wide range of commercial projects, including the deployment of orbital data centers, Barron’s notes.

“All of SpaceX’s future business hinges on Starship—whether it’s next-generation Starlink satellites, an orbital AI constellation, the Artemis lunar lander, or the significant leap in cost and capacity that’s factored into the financial models, — adds Ives. — This spacecraft is both the franchise’s sole key source of value and its greatest risk.”

There is reason to doubt that the system has reached full operational capacity yet: to date, SpaceX has conducted only 12 test launches of Starship, and the next one is not expected for several weeks.

Nearly three weeks after its record-breaking IPO, SpaceX has received ratings from 12 analysts, seven of whom recommend buying the stock, according to Barron's. Three others recommend holding the stock (Hold), and two recommend selling (Sell and Underweight). The average consensus price target is around $240, which implies upside potential of 41% from current levels.

Ives is also known as a longtime supporter of Tesla—another company owned by Elon Musk. He maintains a “Buy” rating on the stock with a target price of $600, the highest on Wall Street.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor