Morning in New York: Trading Is Expected to Be Stable

A daily review and forecast of events in the U.S. stock market by Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Capital Markets Research at Freedom Broker.

The main topic of the session remains the standoff between the U.S. and Iran. Negotiations on reopening the Strait of Hormuz have effectively stalled. Donald Trump has stated that the strait will soon become U.S. territory, but Tehran categorically disagrees. At the same time, the U.S. president is threatening to deal a severe blow to the Iranian economy, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has announced measures that “no one has ever seen before,” to be implemented as early as this week. Experts surveyed by Reuters cite secondary sanctions against independent Chinese refineries and banks, secondary tariffs, additional restrictions in the aviation sector, and a land blockade as possible options. As long as the negotiating impasse persists, oil and the energy sector remain the primary channels through which geopolitics influences the market, and specifics regarding the sanctions package could intensify intraday price movements for commodities.

The situation is complicated by the reduction of U.S. strategic oil reserves to their lowest level in four decades. Experts warn that the accelerated drawdown of the reserves could damage the storage facilities themselves. The tool the administration typically uses to bring down fuel prices is thus becoming less available. If sanctions continue to escalate, it will become more difficult to keep gasoline prices from rising, and this will have a direct impact on consumer inflation.

This Monday, the Empire Manufacturing Index of business activity in New York’s manufacturing sector for August will be released (consensus: 10 points; July: 15.6 points). However, due to its narrow regional scope, this release is unlikely to serve as a standalone trigger for stock market movements.

More than 91% of the companies in the S&P 500 index have reported their results for the second calendar quarter. H World Group (HTHT) will report before the market opens, while Fabrinet (FN) and XP (XP) will report after the market closes. Overall, these earnings reports, like today’s statistics, are neutral for the market. However, Fabrinet’s full-year results are of interest in terms of demand for optical components for data centers.

Futures on U.S. stock indices are trading near flat. We assess the risk balance for the upcoming session as neutral, with moderate volatility. External factors will drive price movements, primarily oil price dynamics and rhetoric surrounding new sanctions against Iran.

— Nvidia (NVDA) plans to reduce its initial guarantees for OpenAI’s data center project in Ohio from $250 billion to less than $120 billion, which covers only the first phase of the project with a capacity of 5 GW. The company is also in talks to invest up to $3 billion in SoftBank subsidiary SB Energy, which is developing the site in Ohio. In addition, Nvidia’s management disclosed holdings of $21 billion in SpaceX (SPCX) and $30 billion in Intel (INTC).

— According to Commerce Secretary Howard Latnik, the White House does not want Apple (AAPL) to purchase memory chips from China. The company itself has proposed a 15% commission on purchases made outside the App Store on iOS devices, with additional discounts for developers participating in special programs.

— Anthropic has projected revenue for 2028 in the range of $190–200 billion; revenue for May of this year rose to $47 billion, and for the second quarter exceeded $11.5 billion, compared with $787 million a year earlier. These figures are of particular interest ahead of the company’s IPO.

— According to OpenAI’s CFO, the company’s enterprise segment has surpassed the consumer-facing ChatGPT in revenue. At the same time, the company has undergone several reorganizations and a series of departures by top executives since the beginning of the year.

— Over the past six months, the number of downloads of Alibaba’s (BABA) open-parameter AI models has exceeded 3 billion. By this metric, the company has outperformed both its local competitors and Meta Platforms (META) and Alphabet (GOOGL).

— Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) increased its stake in Alphabet (GOOGL) by $17 billion in the second quarter. The $36.6 billion stake became the third-largest in the portfolio, trailing only Apple (AAPL) and American Express (AXP).

Trading on August 14 on U.S. stock exchanges ended with most benchmarks posting slight losses. The S&P 500 lost 0.17%, the Nasdaq-100 fell 0.13%, the Dow Jones fell 0.20%, while the Russell 2000 gained 0.51%. Over the course of the week, broad-market and small-cap indices hit new all-time highs and consolidated at those levels during Friday’s trading session.

Shares of the “Magnificent Seven” traded flat, having no impact on overall market movements. The energy sector (XLE: +1.39%) emerged as the top performer thanks to a 1.4% rise in WTI crude oil prices, closing the entire previous week firmly in positive territory. The healthcare sector (XLV: −0.6%) underperformed the market slightly, with biopharma companies and healthcare facility operators coming under pressure.

Retail sales for July unexpectedly fell to their lowest level since May 2025. The core index declined by 0.4% month-over-month, and sales of the benchmark product group also turned negative. The surprise was moderate, as preliminary comments had already noted weak card transaction data, the hangover effect following the early Prime Day event, and seasonal factors. The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index fell short of the forecast. Both the current conditions and expectations components showed declines. One-year-ahead inflation expectations rose, although five- and ten-year expectations remained unchanged. Weak demand is viewed by the market as an argument for easing monetary policy, while rising inflation expectations are seen as a case for tightening monetary policy. At the same time, Chicago Fed President Ostan Goolsbee, speaking on August 14, supported the decision to keep rates unchanged and gave a positive assessment of the latest inflation data.

Treasury bond yields rose by 2–4 basis points, and the yield curve steepened. This movement is atypical: weak consumer spending data usually leads to lower rates. Market participants attribute the rise in Treasury yields to supply-side factors, primarily the state of the budget and the large volume of corporate bond issuances to finance AI infrastructure. As long as these factors remain in play, weak macroeconomic data alone does not guarantee a decline in yields.

The dollar index fell 0.3%, gold rose 0.4%, silver rose 0.2%, and Bitcoin futures corrected by 0.8%.

— According to media reports, a consortium consisting of Stripe and Advent is discussing the acquisition of PayPal (PYPL: +1.77%) at a price above $60.50 per share, which indicates that the issuer’s negotiating position is strengthening.

— The U.S. President has issued an executive order imposing tariffs of up to 100% on imported drones, docking stations, and critical components. This strengthens AeroVironment’s (AVAV: +1.78%) competitive position in the U.S. drone market.

— York Space Systems’ (YSS: −5.04%) second-quarter revenue exceeded consensus estimates, while earnings per share fell short of expectations. The full-year revenue guidance was lowered due to the exclusion of revenue from new contracts amid changes in the government procurement process. However, management expects a significant acceleration in growth in 2027.

— Birkenstock (BIRK: −4.02%) shares came under pressure after L Catterton sold a secondary block of 25.5 million shares at $39.35 per share. This represents a discount of about 4% to the closing price of $41 on August 13.

— QXO’s (QXO: −2.55%) second-quarter earnings per share were in line with consensus estimates, while revenue and EBITDA exceeded them. Analysts highlighted the performance of the Beacon segment and the potential for margin growth following the acquisition of TopBuild, which partially offsets the weak conditions in the residential real estate market.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor