An anonymous trader earned $410,000 on Maduro's overthrow. He bet 12 times less.

The prediction market allowed an anonymous trader who bet on a rapid change of regime in Venezuela to turn $34,000 into nearly half a million dollars in a matter of hours. Although the transaction immediately raised suspicions of illegal use of confidential information, US prosecutors may be powerless to act.

An anonymous user created an account on the Polymarket betting platform in December 2025 and placed his first bet at the end of the month — $96 on a US invasion of Venezuela before the end of January, according to The Wall Street Journal, citing data from the platform. Over the next week, this person spent several thousand dollars on contracts that would pay out if Nicolás Maduro was removed from office as president of Venezuela by January 31.

A few hours before the US military began operations to capture Maduro, the trader bet another $20,000 on his overthrow. At that time, the market estimated the probability of the Venezuelan dictator losing power in January at only 8%. When Washington announced Maduro's abduction, the value of the contracts skyrocketed, and the mysterious trader with $34,000 in bets made a profit of nearly $410,000, according to the WSJ.

— On December 27, the trader places his first bet of $96 on a US invasion of Venezuela.
— From December 31 to January 2, the player bets several thousand dollars on a US attack and Maduro's loss of power;
— On January 2, from 8:38 p.m. to 9:58 p.m. Eastern Time (ET), during the final series of trades, the anonymous trader bets more than $20,000 on Maduro's overthrow.
— On January 2, at 10:46 p.m., US President Donald Trump orders the military to strike the Venezuelan capital;
— On January 3, at 1:00 a.m., the first explosions are heard in Caracas.
— On January 3, at 8:41 a.m., the trader begins to take profits on bets and earns almost $410,000.

The concentrated nature of the bets from a completely new account, in the absence of public news directly indicating Maduro's inevitable overthrow, all potentially points to an insider, the WSJ claims, citing Polymarket experts.

"Most likely, it was an insider. It's too significant an amount to enter at such a price without a large volume of news," the stock market publication quotes Tre Upshaw, founder of Polysights, a startup that provides analytical tools for traders.

If an American official was behind the bets on Maduro's overthrow, he could be prosecuted under insider trading laws for swap contracts. However, if the trader was a foreigner conducting transactions outside the US, the US authorities may not have legal grounds to bring a case, explained Noah Soloveychik, a partner at the law firm Fenwick & West.

After Maduro's capture, Venezuelan sovereign bonds, which had previously been declared in default, soared 30% on expectations of debt restructuring, Reuters reports. Shares in Chevron and other US oil companies jumped amid hopes that a change of regime in Venezuela would make it easier for American majors to access the world's largest oil reserves. Shares in Western arms manufacturers rose on bets that the global rearmament trend would intensify.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor