Anthropic's IPO Is in the Home Stretch: Five Things Investors Should Keep an Eye On

Next week, Anthropic, a developer of cutting-edge artificial intelligence models, will go public for the first time. With a private placement of $26 billion, this listing could break the record set by SpaceX, which held its IPO in June. The deal could bring the AI giant and its co-founders up to $90.4 billion. Bloomberg has identified five things investors should watch for in the coming days.

Anthropic’s pre-IPO marketing campaign, designed to convince investors to buy as many shares as possible, includes both ambitious projections and the participation of business luminaries, according to Bloomberg. The agency reports: Goldman Sachs analysts presented models showing that the AI startup’s revenue will surge more than 130-fold by 2030—to approximately $685 billion, and JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon held a live interview with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei.

In documents filed with the U.S. securities regulator on Tuesday, Anthropic specified the price range for its upcoming initial public offering—from $70 to $78 per share. Based on these figures, the company’s fully diluted valuation could reach $1.4 trillion. At the same time, the book-building process has begun: there are already enough orders to buy up all the shares being offered several times over, according to Bloomberg. By comparison, SpaceX’s base IPO size was $75 billion, and demand exceeded $350 billion.

There is no guarantee that Anthropic will increase the size of its IPO or its valuation, the agency reports. However, as subscription orders come in, strong demand will likely prompt the company to raise its target parameters—most likely around the middle of the marketing campaign. According to the Financial Times, an increase in the valuation is already being discussed. That said, given the volatility of AI stocks in recent weeks, Anthropic may stick with its initial figures. Furthermore, increasing the offering size could absorb some of the demand that companies prefer to save for a price surge on the first day of trading.

There is one week left until the IPO price is set on November 18, and lately, a week on the stock market feels like an eternity, notes Bloomberg. CoreWeave’s quarterly results, released on Tuesday, somewhat eased concerns about AI spending following a painful sell-off. However, Nvidia is set to report on November 17, and its CEO, Jensen Huang, has found himself at the center of a scandal: he admitted to having ties to an alleged Chinese spy. Market turmoil is likely to influence Anthropic’s decision on the offering price.

It will take less than half a trading session to see how well the bankers and the company have done their jobs, according to Bloomberg. Trading in Anthropic shares on the Nasdaq is expected to begin around noon on November 19. Preliminary opening price estimates will start coming in in the morning, even before the first trades are executed. Investors who received shares in the offering will be counting on a jump in the stock price, and if the price falls, they’ll be able to sell their shares quickly. Early investors and employees who own shares stand to make huge profits—provided the stock price doesn’t crash. However, due to lock-up agreements prohibiting the sale of shares after the IPO, they will have to hold onto their shares for some time.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor