Former Fidelity financier estimates Tesla's real value at nearly six times below market value
Analysts argue over Elon Musk's business valuation, with estimates ranging from $1.3 trillion
The fair value of Tesla shares is $80 per share, said former Fidelity portfolio manager George Noble. That's almost six times less than the current stock market price.
Details
For Tesla, Noble used the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) method, analyzing the company's business units separately. According to his assessment, the fair value of Tesla's automotive business is $18 per share, and its energy business is $20 per share. The financier valued the robotaxi division at $30 per share, based on Waymo's market capitalization. The Optimus robot program, according to his calculations, adds another $12 to the price based on Boston Dynamics' valuation. These calculations, although rough, are much closer to the truth than the "fantastic and irresponsible figures" that speculators use in the narrative about Tesla's success, Noble said.
Disputed asset
Other valuations using the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) method differ significantly from Noble's calculations. Deutsche Bank valued Tesla's automotive business at $175 per share and its robotics and driverless taxi segments at a combined $259 per share, according to Barron's. Analysts at William Blair value the robotaxi segment alone at $300.
Expert estimates for SOTP range from $80 to $470, creating a gap in market value of $1.3 trillion. Such a wide range is of little help to investors, merely confirming the fact that Tesla remains a controversial asset at the start of the new year, Barron's notes.
What about the shares?
Tesla shares ended 2025 as the most expensive stocks in the S&P 500 index, trading at 220 times their projected earnings for 2026. On January 5, the shares rose 3.1% after falling for seven consecutive trading sessions.
According to FactSet, only 20 of the 50 analysts covering Tesla shares recommend buying them. The average target price for these securities is $424 per share, which is below the market price ($451.67) — a rare occurrence among large US companies.
This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor
