Lilly raised its revenue forecast. This eased fears that the weight-loss boom is on the decline
Eli Lilly Raises Forecast Thanks to the Success of Its Weight-Loss Drugs / Photo: Tada Image / Shutterstock.com
Pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly raised its revenue forecast for 2026 after sales of weight-loss drugs in the second quarter significantly exceeded analysts’ expectations. Lilly has an impressive drug portfolio, but it is its best-selling weight-loss drugs that account for the lion's share of its revenue. The company's stock rose nearly 4% following the release of the report.
Details
Eli Lilly has raised its revenue forecast by 3%—it now expects sales in 2026 to total $85–87 billion, according to the company's quarterly report.
Its revenue in the second quarter jumped 48% compared with the same period last year, reaching $22.97 billion, while analysts had expected $20.69 billion, according to Bloomberg. The growth was driven by a 60% increase in sales volume, which was only partially offset by a 13% decline in prices.
Drugs for the treatment of diabetes and obesity were once again the main drivers. Sales of Mounjaro nearly doubled, generating $9.94 billion, thanks to expanded access to the drug in global markets. Revenue from Zepbound rose 46% to $4.93 billion, also exceeding Wall Street’s forecasts.
Investors are currently paying particular attention to the results of Lilly’s new anti-obesity pill, called Foundayo. This was the first full quarter since the drug hit the market. It got off to a strong start, generating $96 million—4% more than analysts had expected, according to Seeking Alpha.
Just the day before, Novo Nordisk, a Danish company that competes with Eli Lilly, reported strong sales of its weight-loss pill, which totaled about $497 million, but the market had hoped for higher demand. As Barron’s notes, some investors may be disappointed that the Foundayo pill did not achieve the same success as Novo’s counterpart. The companies continue to battle for market share in the anti-obesity drug market, which analysts estimate could reach $120 billion by the end of the decade, according to Bloomberg.
Eli Lilly shares jumped nearly 9% at the opening bell on August 5, but subsequently lost more than half of those gains. Novo shares in Copenhagen fell 4.3%, while the company’s American depositary receipts in New York are showing a slight increase.
What does this mean for the weight-loss drug market?
Eli Lilly’s improved outlook may ease investors’ concerns that the rapid growth of the weight-loss drug market is beginning to slow, Bloomberg explains. On July 30, a division of Cigna that manages prescription drug plans for employers reported a reduction in coverage for such drugs and a slowdown in the growth rate of their use, the agency notes.
The issue of drug affordability is becoming one of the key challenges for both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. Many insurance plans limit reimbursement for obesity drugs or exclude them entirely from their coverage programs, according to Bloomberg. The situation is similar under the Medicaid program: currently, such drugs are covered in only 13 U.S. states, and some of the largest states, including California, have recently stopped funding them due to high costs.
At the same time, the Donald Trump administration’s decision to provide millions of older Americans with access to these drugs through Medicare—which previously did not cover obesity treatment—is expected to boost sales for Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk.
To offset restrictions imposed by insurers, both companies are expanding their direct-to-consumer sales programs. They offer significant discounts to patients who pay for their treatment out of pocket, and Lilly has also launched a special program for employers that allows them to purchase its medications at lower prices.
Where Does Lilly Spend Its Money?
The rapidly growing weight-loss drug business allows Lilly to reinvest its profits in expanding its R&D portfolio and acquiring new assets to ensure long-term growth and strengthen its position in new areas, Bloomberg notes. During the quarter, it acquired Kelonia Therapeutics, a cell therapy developer, and Centessa Therapeutics, a company that produces medications for sleep disorders. The latest deal, valued at up to $7.8 billion, was the largest completed acquisition in the pharmaceutical giant’s history, according to Barron’s.
On July 17, Lilly announced that it would acquire psychedelic drug developer AtaiBeckley for $3.8 billion.
This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor
