'Market structure has shifted against Nike': Berenberg sees 19% downside for Nike
Berenberg cut its rating to "sell" and slashed its target price
“Nike appears to have accepted a smaller place in sportswear,” Berenberg argues / Photo: Unsplash/Luis Felipe Lins
Berenberg has downgraded shares of Nike from “hold” to “sell” and cut its target price from $49.00 to $27.50 per share, Barron’s reports. The new TP implies almost 19% downside. Nike shares were up 0.7% in Tuesday trading as of this writing.
“Nike appears to have accepted a smaller place in sportswear,” Berenberg analyst Nick Anderson said in a note. Nike’s fiscal 2027 outlook, issued following its first-quarter earnings report, disappointed the market. The company said it expects revenue to decline 7-9% in the year ending May 31, 2027, implying its lowest annual sales since 2020. Analysts, meanwhile, had expected a decline of just 2.4%.
Nike also announced changes to its operating model to “position Nike for long-term growth.” The brand pledged to focus on modernizing its supply chain and move to a three-region geographic structure. In particular, Greater China, where sales have been declining for several years, will be combined with the broader Asia-Pacific region.
“Nike’s solution is to organize sportswear around smaller focus areas. To us, this reads as an admission that market structure has shifted irreversibly against Nike,” Anderson added. Nike did not respond to Barron’s request for comment.
What other analysts think
Investors have long been waiting for Nike’s turnaround to bear fruit and start translating into share-price gains, Barron’s wrote. The stock is down 46% in 2026 and off around 80% from its all-time high from November 2021.
After such a decline, some optimism might be expected to return to Wall Street, Barron’s noted. However, just 26% of analysts covering Nike rate it a "buy." According to FactSet data, that is the lowest level in at least 20 years, down from 65% at the end of 2025.
