Moderna surges 700% on cancer vaccine hopes. Covid still drives 3Q revenue.

Moderna’s management has raised its 2026 outlook after a strong quarter in which higher Covid-19 vaccine sales and international deals helped lift revenue by almost a third and deliver the drugmaker’s first net profit in two years. It is also looking to new revenue sources outside of Covid vaccines, particularly cancer treatments. Excitement surrounding its experimental cancer vaccine has sent the stock up eightfold this year.

Moderna reported a 29% year-over-year increase in third-quarter revenue to $1.3 billion. That topped analysts’ forecast of $890.3 million, Barron’s reports. Moderna attributed the growth to deliveries under agreements with the UK, Canada, and Australia, while also highlighting a five-year deal with a Mexican manufacturer to supply Covid-19 vaccines, which the management expects to support recurring revenue and market expansion.

Defying market expectations, Moderna posted a profit of $162 million, or $0.38 per share. Analysts had forecast a loss of $1.10 per share. A year earlier, Moderna recorded a net loss of almost $200 million.

Following the strong quarter, Moderna’s management raised its full-year revenue growth outlook to 15-25% from the previously projected 10%. The management expects revenue to be split roughly evenly between the U.S. and international markets.

Moderna shares were up more than 7% in Friday trading.

The third quarter is traditionally Moderna’s strongest because of seasonal demand for respiratory vaccines, which still account for most of its revenue, Barron’s notes.

The company did not disclose quarterly sales of mFlusiva, its mRNA flu vaccine for adults aged 50 and older, which the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved in August. Moderna stated only that the management was targeting a limited U.S. launch this flu season because FDA approval came after the annual contracting cycle had ended. Canadian regulators separately approved the vaccine on Thursday, along with a combination flu and Covid vaccine.

Though Moderna’s business has been closely tied to respiratory vaccines, analysts increasingly see cancer treatments as central to its prospects, Barron’s writes. Attention is focused on intismeran, the personalized cancer vaccine Moderna is developing with Merck. Excitement surrounding the vaccine has helped drive Moderna shares up more than 700% year to date.

Expanded phase III trial results showed intismeran’s efficacy in combination with Merck’s immunotherapy Keytruda in patients at high risk of melanoma recurrence following surgery to remove their tumors. On Friday, Moderna stated that the partners were “working toward regulatory submissions and preparing for a potential commercial launch.”