Oil below $100, stocks rise: what's happening in the markets on the 33rd day of the war

Despite the fact that an important artery for the oil and gas market - the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Iran - is still effectively closed, Brent crude futures have fallen below $100 per barrel for the first time in a week, Asian stock markets are showing the most significant growth in almost a year, European stocks are also growing.

Investors are reacting to statements from U.S. President Donald Trump about a possible imminent end to the conflict with Iran and signals from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who said Tehran has the "necessary will to end the war" with guarantees - including that Iran will not be attacked in the future.

Amid Trump's statements that the war with Iran could end in the next "two to three weeks" and Pezeshkian's words:

- June futures for Brent crude oil lost more than 4% against the previous close, falling to a low of $98.7 per barrel. At the time of publication they cost $99.1. U.S. WTI crude contracts are also falling 4% to $97.29. Below $100 per barrel Brent fell for the first time in the last week, Bloomberg points out.

- Asian index MSCI Asia Pacific jumped by 5.1% on April 1, which was the largest daily increase since April 10, Bloomberg writes. The leaders of growth were shares of South Korea, Taiwan and Japan, in particular, securities of such large Asian technology companies as TSMC (adding 5.4% in Taiwan), Samsung Electronics (growing by 13.4% in Korea) and SK Hynix (up 10.66%).

- European stocks are also growing: the pan-European index Stoxx 600, which lost 8% in March amid the war in the Middle East, rose by 2.36% in the first half-hour of trading on April 1. Meanwhile, the French CAC 40 is up by 2.28%, the German DAX has jumped by 2.73%, the British FTSE 100 is growing by 1.67%.

- Gold prices jumped 1.5% to $4747.78 an ounce amid a weaker U.S. dollar, the highest level in two recent weeks, Reuters writes. The U.S. dollar, meanwhile, fell 0.4% against a basket of other world currencies, making the precious metal more accessible to non-dollar buyers.

The global rise in world stock markets is masking worries about the outlook for the world economy, which could end this recovery prematurely, Bloomberg writes.

"The impact of the Iran war has not yet been adequately factored into forecasts," Lombard Odier Singapore strategist Homin Lee pointed out. - If supply volumes through the Strait of Hormuz do not recover significantly after these encouraging signals, the downward revision of earnings forecasts will accelerate sharply," he added (quoted by Bloomberg).

"The next stage will be to assess the damage to demand from uncertainty and recover the cost of higher costs," said Matthew Haupt, a fund manager at Wilson Asset Management in Sydney (quoted by Bloomberg).

"Trump could be trapped like 'Hotel California': you can evict whenever you want, but you can never actually leave," said Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research for Asia (excluding Japan) at Mizuho Securities. Even if the U.S. pulls back, "the Strait of Hormuz may remain blocked," he noted (quoted by Bloomberg).

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor